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K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 v Lierse K. U21

K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21

1–3Full time

Lierse K. U21

Reserve Pro League · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–3 Lierse K. U21 K. BEERSCHOT V.A. RESERVE U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.952

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–19–23
1′KICK-OFF K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 v Lierse K. U21
10′Lierse K. U21 score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 35–22–44
10′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–1 · 35–22–44
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 0–1 Lierse K. U21
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 35% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Lierse K. U21 win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win 35%)
11′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–22–44
26′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–24–47
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 0–1 · 28–24–48
38′K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 find the net on 38′. 1–1. 1–1 · 50–27–23
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–1 Lierse K. U21
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 50% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Lierse K. U21 win 23%)
39′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
39′GOAL DISALLOWED · 39' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 24% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Lierse K. U21 win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win 24%)
42′K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 find the net on 41′. 1–1. 1–1 · 48–29–23
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–1 Lierse K. U21
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Lierse K. U21 win 23%)
45′HALF-TIME K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–1 Lierse K. U21
46′SECOND HALF K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–1 Lierse K. U21
47′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–31–23
52′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–33–22
57′A goal for Lierse K. U21 on 57′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 15–27–58
57′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 1–2 · 15–27–58
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–2 Lierse K. U21
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 15% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Lierse K. U21 win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win 15%)
59′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–27–59
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Lierse K. U21
68′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
69′Lierse K. U21 score on 68′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–7–92
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–3 Lierse K. U21
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win: 58% at kick-off, 1% now
70′We said K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–7–92
70′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–7–92
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–3 Lierse K. U21
FTFULL TIME K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–3 Lierse K. U21
FTK. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 1–3 Lierse K. U21 · K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 58%, draw 19%, Lierse K. U21 24%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 v Lierse K. U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win58%

Draw19%

Lierse K. U21 win24%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21

Lierse K. U21

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Reserve Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	4	+7	6
10	Lierse K. U21	4	−7	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · k. beerschot v.a. reserve u21 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 v Lierse K. U21~~2.44 – 1.51

~~Form · Reserve Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 win	58%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Lierse K. U21 win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 or draw	76%	–	–
K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 clean sheet	23%	–	–
Lierse K. U21 clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.0 3.2 2.3 1 5.1 7.0 5.3 2.7 2 5.8 8.3 6.2 3.2 3 4.6 6.7 5.0 2.5 4 2.9 4.1 3.1 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 down, Lierse K. U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 745 Reserve Pro League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Reserve Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21 at home: 3.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lierse K. U21 away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21, 1.51 for Lierse K. U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KBE 2–1 LIE · LIE 3–2 KBE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Reserve Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

K. BEERSCHOT V.A. RESERVE U21

LLWW0–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 6–1

LIERSE K. U21

LDLL0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waasland-Beveren U21	4	+10	9
2	Westerlo U21	4	+4	9
3	RFC Seraing Reserve U21	4	+4	9
4	Kortrijk U21	5	+3	9
5	RWDM U21	5	0	8
6	RAAL La Louviere U21	5	−2	8
7	K. Beerschot V.A. Reserve U21	4	+7	6
8	Francs Borains U21	4	−2	4
9	RFC de Liege U21	4	−6	4
10	Lierse K. U21	4	−7	1
11	Sp. Hasselt U21	5	−11	1