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Zulte Waregem v Gent

Zulte Waregem

0–2Full time

Gent

Jupiler Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Elindus Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Zulte Waregem 0–2 Gent GENT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gent win~~37%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gent win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zulte Waregem 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
3′Little has changed for our model: Zulte Waregem 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
12′We said Zulte Waregem at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–64
13′Gent ahead on 12′ through I. Cisse. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–64
15′Gent ahead on 12′ through I. Cisse. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–21–64
18′We said Zulte Waregem at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–21–64
22′We said Zulte Waregem at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Gent win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zulte Waregem win 15%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Gent win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Gent win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Gent win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zulte Waregem win 15%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Gent win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Gent win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zulte Waregem win 15%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Gent win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Gent win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zulte Waregem win 15%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Gent win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Gent win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zulte Waregem win 15%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Gent win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Gent win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zulte Waregem win 15%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Gent win: 37% at kick-off, 64% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Gent win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Zulte Waregem win 15%)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gent · On: M. Dean · Off: I. Cisse
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Gent · On: M. Volckaert · Off: H. Goore
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Zulte Waregem · On: Z. Atrok · Off: T. Hedl
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gent · On: T. De Vlieger · Off: M. Delorge
71′🟨 YELLOW · 72' M. Mbaye · Zulte Waregem
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Zulte Waregem
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zulte Waregem · On: S. Ujka · Off: E. Lofolomo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gent · On: E. H. Seck · Off: M. Sonko
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gent · On: A. Omgba · Off: L. Lopes
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' A. Omgba · Gent
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Zulte Waregem 0–2 Gent · I. Cisse
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Zulte Waregem 0–2 Gent · M. Balikwisha
FTFULL TIME Zulte Waregem 0–2 Gent
FTZulte Waregem 0–2 Gent · Gent win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zulte Waregem win37%

Draw26%

Gent win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Elindus Arena

Referee · N. Laforge

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Zulte Waregem

4-3-3

13 B. Gabriel

23 S. Diakite

4 L. Lemoine

5 J. Kiilerich

55 Y. Cappelle

8 T. Claes

6 E. Lofolomo

11 M. Ake

10 M. Mbaye

18 A. Ementa

20 T. Hedl

Coach · Michael Beale

Substitutes

1 · L. Bostyn

45 · B. De Jaegere

15 · Y. Mbodji

22 · O. Niang

36 · S. Ujka

7 · N. Mituljikic

21 · Z. Atrok

90 · H. Akpa-Chukwu

53 · K. Vemba

Gent

3-4-2-1

33 D. Roef

3 M. Paskotsi

16 C. Burgess

44 S. Van Der Heyden

45 H. Goore

22 L. Lopes

17 M. Delorge

20 T. Araujo

7 M. Balikwisha

11 M. Sonko

75 I. Cisse

Coach · Rik De Mil

Substitutes

30 · K. Peersman

56 · M. Diallo

39 · A. Ayinde

57 · M. Volckaert

10 · A. Omgba

37 · A. Kadri

27 · T. De Vlieger

21 · M. Dean

59 · E. H. Seck

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zulte Waregem

4-3-3

13 B. Gabriel

23 S. Diakite

4 L. Lemoine

5 J. Kiilerich

55 Y. Cappelle

8 T. Claes

6 E. Lofolomo

11 M. Ake

10 M. Mbaye

18 A. Ementa

20 T. Hedl

Coach · Michael Beale

Substitutes

1 · L. Bostyn

45 · B. De Jaegere

15 · Y. Mbodji

22 · O. Niang

36 · S. Ujka

7 · N. Mituljikic

21 · Z. Atrok

90 · H. Akpa-Chukwu

53 · K. Vemba

Gent

3-4-2-1

33 D. Roef

3 M. Paskotsi

16 C. Burgess

44 S. Van Der Heyden

45 H. Goore

22 L. Lopes

17 M. Delorge

20 T. Araujo

7 M. Balikwisha

11 M. Sonko

75 I. Cisse

Coach · Rik De Mil

Substitutes

30 · K. Peersman

56 · M. Diallo

39 · A. Ayinde

57 · M. Volckaert

10 · A. Omgba

37 · A. Kadri

27 · T. De Vlieger

21 · M. Dean

59 · E. H. Seck

Our number · gent winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

37% The market36%

Us37%

~~Market~~36%

We make Gent a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gent win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zulte Waregem win	37%	34%	+3
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Gent win	37%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	43%	+12
Both teams to score	59%	50%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	79%	68%	+11
Over 3.5 goals	33%	23%	+10
Zulte Waregem or draw	63%	64%	−1
Zulte Waregem clean sheet	24%	–	–
Gent clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.2 7.4 5.8 2.8 1 7.4 12.0 8.2 4.0 2 5.8 8.2 5.9 2.9 3 2.8 4.0 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zulte Waregem down, Gent across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,675 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zulte Waregem at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gent away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Zulte Waregem, 1.46 for Gent. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GEN 2–0 ZUL · ZUL 4–1 GEN · ZUL 2–6 GEN · GEN 2–0 ZUL

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League

ZULTE WAREGEM

DWDWLL0–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

GENT

WWWWDW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
2	Gent	7	+9	19
3	Club Brugge KV	7	+12	18
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
5	Anderlecht	7	+2	13
6	Zulte Waregem	7	+3	11
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11
8	Lommel United	8	0	11
9	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
10	Genk	7	+1	9
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	7	0	8
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7
14	RAAL La Louvière	7	−7	4
15	OH Leuven	7	−8	4
16	Cercle Brugge	7	−6	3
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3
18	Kortrijk	7	−13	3