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Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven

Union St. Gilloise

1–1Full time

OH Leuven

Jupiler Pro League · SUN 11 OCT · Stade Joseph Marien

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH Leuven UNION ST. GILLOISE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union St. Gilloise win~~73%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.203

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union St. Gilloise win at 73%.
1′KICK-OFF Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven
4′Little has changed for our model: Union St. Gilloise 73% before kick-off, 73% now. 0–0 · 73–18–9
7′Little has changed for our model: Union St. Gilloise 73% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–19–9
7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' W. Balikwisha · OH Leuven
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Union St. Gilloise 0–1 OH Leuven · D. Opoku
18′D. Opoku scores for OH Leuven on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 40–28–32
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 40% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 69% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 40% now
20′D. Opoku scores for OH Leuven on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 39–28–32
20′We said Union St. Gilloise at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–28–32
22′We said Union St. Gilloise at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–1 · 38–29–33
32′We said Union St. Gilloise at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–30–37
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 33% now
33′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 32–30–38
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 38% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 33% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 32% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' OH Leuven win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Union St. Gilloise win 32%)
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 32% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 38% now
35′We said Union St. Gilloise at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–31–39
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 38% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 32% now
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 30–31–39
38′We said Union St. Gilloise at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–31–40
40′We said Union St. Gilloise at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–31–41
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' J. Lawrence · OH Leuven
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 28% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' OH Leuven win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Union St. Gilloise win 28%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 28% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' OH Leuven win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Union St. Gilloise win 28%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' O. Gil · OH Leuven
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Union St. Gilloise win: 73% at kick-off, 28% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' OH Leuven win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Union St. Gilloise win 28%)
45′HALF-TIME Union St. Gilloise 0–1 OH Leuven
46′SECOND HALF Union St. Gilloise 0–1 OH Leuven
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Union St. Gilloise · On: D. De Roeve · Off: N. Chibani
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Union St. Gilloise · On: R. Florucz · Off: R. Mofokeng
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH Leuven · D. Opoku
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Union St. Gilloise · On: D. Aquino · Off: Guilherme Smith
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Union St. Gilloise · On: A. Ait El Hadj · Off: D. Olaru
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' OH Leuven · On: B. Verstraete · Off: L. Lakomy
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' OH Leuven · On: C. Ikwuemesi · Off: R. Mirisola
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' OH Leuven · On: T. Ogiwara · Off: D. Opoku
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' OH Leuven · On: K. Vaesen · Off: W. George
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' OH Leuven · On: E. Pletinckx · Off: S. Schrijvers
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Union St. Gilloise · On: D. Egel · Off: M. Sylla
90′🟥 RED CARD · 91' L. Patris · Union St. Gilloise
FTFULL TIME Union St. Gilloise 1–1 OH Leuven
FTUnion St. Gilloise 1–1 OH Leuven · Union St. Gilloise win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Union St. Gilloise win73%

Draw18%

OH Leuven win9%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueStade Joseph Marien

RefereeN. Verboomen

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise

3-1-4-2

OH Leuven

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Union St. Gilloise

OH Leuven

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
14	OH Leuven	7	−8	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise

3-1-4-2

12 H. Koffi

55 N. Havenaar

29 M. Sylla

4 N. Chibani

6 K. Van De Perre

27 L. Patris

23 B. Zeneli

28 D. Olaru

11 Guilherme Smith

9 M. Biondic

38 R. Mofokeng

Coach · David Hubert

Substitutes

1 · V. Chambaere

71 · K. Boets

21 · D. De Roeve

33 · D. Egel

10 · A. Ait El Hadj

14 · I. Pavlic

20 · D. Aquino

30 · R. Florucz

OH Leuven

3-4-3

13 K. Vroman

5 J. Lawrence

3 N. Dussenne

34 R. Nyakossi

27 O. Gil

6 W. George

8 S. Schrijvers

99 D. Opoku

24 L. Lakomy

18 R. Mirisola

21 W. Balikwisha

Coach · Timmy Simons

Substitutes

61 · O. Jochmans

26 · T. Ogiwara

28 · E. Pletinckx

30 · A. Fontanarosa

4 · B. Verstraete

72 · S. Murru

17 · K. Vaesen

19 · C. Ikwuemesi

7 · E. Addai

Our number · union st. gilloise winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

73% The market75%

Us73%

~~Market~~75%

We make Union St. Gilloise a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · union st. gilloise win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 75% to 76% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union St. Gilloise win	73%	75%	−3
Draw	18%	16%	+3
OH Leuven win	9%	9%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	64%	−11
Both teams to score	41%	49%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	82%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	43%	−12
Union St. Gilloise or draw	91%	91%	0
Union St. Gilloise clean sheet	54%	–	–
OH Leuven clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.3%

0123450 6.6 3.4 1 12.8 8.5 2.6 2 14.3 8.7 2.7 3 10.4 6.3 4 5.8 3.5 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Union St. Gilloise down, OH Leuven across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,679 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). OH Leuven away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Union St. Gilloise, 0.62 for OH Leuven. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OHL 0–0 UNI · UNI 5–0 OHL · UNI 1–0 OHL · OHL 1–1 UNI

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League

UNION ST. GILLOISE

DWWWWW0–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 5–0 · 2–0

OH LEUVEN

LLLLDW0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	Genk	8	+4	12
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
9	Lommel United	8	0	11
10	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	7	0	8
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7
14	OH Leuven	7	−8	4
15	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4
16	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3
18	Kortrijk	8	−16	3