Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge prediction · Jupiler Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Union St. GilloiseDrawCercle Brugge

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Union St. Gilloise 70%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union St. Gilloise 70%, draw 19%, Cercle Brugge 11%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Union St. Gilloise v Cercle BruggeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Union St. Gilloise win70%

Draw19%

Cercle Brugge win11%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:15

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStade Joseph Marien

RefereeW. De Cremer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union St. Gilloise

Cercle Brugge

3Days since last match9

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 16 Oct · the Belgian Cup

4Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union st. gilloise winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

70% The market72%

Us70%

~~Market~~72%

We make Union St. Gilloise a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union St. Gilloise v Cercle Brugge~~2.27 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 23 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 20 v 3~~4 v 18

~~The market · Union St. Gilloise win~~72% · ours 70%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union St. Gilloise win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union St. Gilloise win	70%	72%	−2
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Cercle Brugge win	11%	11%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	65%	−6
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Union St. Gilloise or draw	89%	89%	0
Union St. Gilloise clean sheet	45%	–	–
Cercle Brugge clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%

0123450 5.2 3.4 1 10.2 8.8 3.4 2 11.9 9.3 3.7 3 9.0 7.0 2.8 4 5.2 4.0 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Union St. Gilloise down, Cercle Brugge across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cercle Brugge away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Union St. Gilloise, 0.80 for Cercle Brugge. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CER 1–1 UNI · UNI 2–0 CER · CER 0–0 UNI · UNI 1–3 CER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 23 Aug

UNION ST. GILLOISE

WWWWWD3–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

CERCLE BRUGGE

LLLDLL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	8	+9	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	8	+3	13
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Lommel United	8	0	11
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
13	Antwerp	8	−8	7
14	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
15	OH Leuven	8	−8	5
16	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3