Standard Liege v Kortrijk prediction · Jupiler Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Standard LiegeDrawKortrijk

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Standard Liege 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Standard Liege are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Standard Liege 53%, draw 27%, Kortrijk 20%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Standard Liege v KortrijkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Standard Liege win53%

Draw27%

Kortrijk win20%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMaurice Dufrasnestadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Standard Liege

Kortrijk

15Days since last match21

Last match: 16 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · standard liege winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Standard Liege a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Standard Liege v Kortrijk~~1.57 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 3~~9 v 17

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Standard Liege win	53%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Kortrijk win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Standard Liege or draw	80%	–	–
Standard Liege clean sheet	43%	–	–
Kortrijk clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 9.6 7.1 3.3 1 13.3 12.3 5.1 2 10.8 9.1 3.9 3 5.7 4.8 2.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Standard Liege down, Kortrijk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.38 goals a meeting; 0 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Standard Liege at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kortrijk away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Standard Liege, 0.86 for Kortrijk. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.38

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STA 1–0 KOR · KOR 1–0 STA · STA 0–1 KOR · KOR 1–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 21 Aug

STANDARD LIEGE

WWWLLL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1

KORTRIJK

LLLLWL1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	9	+6	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	9	+3	14
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Lommel United	9	0	12
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Zulte Waregem	9	−2	11
11	Antwerp	9	−5	10
12	SK Beveren	9	−6	10
13	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
14	RAAL La Louvière	9	−7	7
15	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
16	OH Leuven	9	−8	6
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3