Standard Liege v Charleroi prediction · Jupiler Pro League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Standard Liege 0–1 Charleroi CHARLEROI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charleroi win~~37%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.605

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.568

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Charleroi win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Charleroi was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 35–28–37
1′KICK-OFF Standard Liege v Charleroi
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Charleroi win 32%)
35′🟨 YELLOW · 36' I. Hautekiet · Standard Liege
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' A. Boukamir · Charleroi
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' A. Boukamir · Charleroi
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Charleroi win 30%)
45′SECOND HALF Standard Liege 0–0 Charleroi
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Charleroi win 30%)
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Charleroi win 30%)
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Charleroi win 30%)
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Charleroi win 30%)
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Standard Liege 0–0 Charleroi · M. Nzita
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Standard Liege 0–1 Charleroi · M. Nzita
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Standard Liege · On: S. Drammeh · Off: B. Nguene
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Standard Liege · On: A. Zeqiri · Off: C. Nielsen
69′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Charleroi · On: T. Rowe · Off: P. Pflucke
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Charleroi · On: I. Cisse · Off: A. Boukamir
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Charleroi · On: G. Nawata · Off: F. Mbemba
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Standard Liege · On: B. Nsimba · Off: D. Eckert
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Standard Liege · On: R. Fosso · Off: R. Touzghar
83′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Standard Liege · On: M. Ilaimaharitra · Off: A. Trouillet
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Charleroi · On: M. Sow · Off: J. Romsaas
95′🟥 RED CARD · 96' G. Mortensen · Standard Liege
95′🟥 RED CARD · 95' G. Mortensen · Standard Liege
FTFULL TIME Standard Liege 0–1 Charleroi
FTStandard Liege 0–1 Charleroi · Charleroi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Standard Liege win34%

Draw29%

Charleroi win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueMaurice Dufrasnestadion

Line-ups

Standard Liege

4-3-3

Charleroi

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Standard Liege

Charleroi

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Standard Liege

4-3-3

1 M. Epolo

13 M. Fossey

20 I. Karamoko

25 I. Hautekiet

3 G. Mortensen

94 C. Nielsen

22 A. Trouillet

84 R. Touzghar

17 B. Nguene

10 D. Eckert

11 A. Abid

Coach · Vincent Euvrard

Substitutes

21 · L. Pirard

29 · D. Dierckx

18 · H. Lawrence

23 · M. Ilaimaharitra

80 · R. Fosso

7 · T. Mohr

9 · A. Zeqiri

77 · B. Nsimba

15 · S. Drammeh

Charleroi

4-2-3-1

30 M. Kone

3 K. Van Den Kerkhof

4 A. Ousou

95 C. Keita

24 M. Nzita

6 A. Boukamir

18 Y. Khalifi

14 P. Pflucke

8 J. Romsaas

20 F. Mbemba

21 A. Scheidler

Coach · Mario Kohnen

Substitutes

1 · M. Delavallee

2 · T. Rowe

44 · M. Sow

33 · N. Solheid

51 · M. Kera

19 · I. Cisse

25 · A. Colassin

13 · G. Nawata

9 · A. Bojang

Our number · charleroi winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

37% The market39%

Us37%

~~Market~~39%

We make Charleroi a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · charleroi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 37% now. The market has gone from 40% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Standard Liege win	34%	34%	0
Draw	29%	28%	+2
Charleroi win	37%	39%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	52%	−10
Both teams to score	48%	57%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	69%	76%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	31%	−10
Standard Liege or draw	63%	61%	+2
Standard Liege clean sheet	30%	–	–
Charleroi clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.2 10.7 6.8 2.8 1 10.3 13.6 7.8 3.2 2 6.3 7.5 4.5 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Standard Liege down, Charleroi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,679 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Standard Liege at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Charleroi away: 1.67 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Standard Liege, 1.21 for Charleroi. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 14

~~Both scored~~6 of 14

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–2 CHA · CHA 1–2 STA · CHA 2–0 STA · STA 3–1 CHA

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League

STANDARD LIEGE

DWWWLL3–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–2

CHARLEROI

WWWLWW1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	Genk	8	+4	12
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
9	Lommel United	8	0	11
10	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	7	0	8
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7
14	OH Leuven	7	−8	4
15	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4
16	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3
18	Kortrijk	8	−16	3