SK Beveren v Union St. Gilloise prediction · Jupiler Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SK BeverenDrawUnion St. Gilloise

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Union St. Gilloise 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SK Beveren 15%, draw 21%, Union St. Gilloise 65%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on SK Beveren v Union St. GilloiseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

SK Beveren win15%

Draw21%

Union St. Gilloise win65%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFreethiel Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SK Beveren

Union St. Gilloise

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
12	SK Beveren	9	−6	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union st. gilloise winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Union St. Gilloise a 65% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–2.1, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SK Beveren v Union St. Gilloise~~0.87 – 2.11

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 20~~12 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SK Beveren win	15%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Union St. Gilloise win	65%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
SK Beveren or draw	35%	–	–
SK Beveren clean sheet	13%	–	–
Union St. Gilloise clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.0%

0123450 5.8 10.3 11.0 7.8 4.3 1 4.2 9.7 9.4 6.5 3.5 2 2.1 4.1 4.1 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SK Beveren down, Union St. Gilloise across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SK Beveren at home: 1.75 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Union St. Gilloise away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for SK Beveren, 2.11 for Union St. Gilloise. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SKB 0–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

SK BEVEREN

LWWLLD0–4 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 4–4

UNION ST. GILLOISE

WWWWWD3–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	9	+6	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	9	+3	14
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Lommel United	9	0	12
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Zulte Waregem	9	−2	11
11	Antwerp	9	−5	10
12	SK Beveren	9	−6	10
13	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
14	RAAL La Louvière	9	−7	7
15	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
16	OH Leuven	9	−8	6
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3