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SK Beveren v Lommel United

SK Beveren

1–3Full time

Lommel United

Jupiler Pro League · FRI 9 OCT · Freethiel Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

SK Beveren 1–3 Lommel United LOMMEL UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lommel United win~~38%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.576

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.926

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lommel United win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lommel United was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
1′KICK-OFF SK Beveren v Lommel United
22′⚽ GOAL · 24' SK Beveren 0–0 Lommel United · D. Konadu
24′24′ and it is 0–1: D. Konadu on the scoresheet for Lommel United. 0–1 · 11–21–68
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' SK Beveren 0–1 Lommel United · D. Konadu
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Lommel United win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
25′We published Lommel United at 38%. Our model now makes it 68%. 0–1 · 11–21–68
38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' S. Adewoye · Lommel United
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' SK Beveren 0–1 Lommel United · C. Lokesa (assist C. Bruls)
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' SK Beveren 1–1 Lommel United · C. Lokesa
45′SECOND HALF SK Beveren 1–1 Lommel United
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' C. Conde · SK Beveren
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' SK Beveren 1–2 Lommel United · C. Lokesa
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' SK Beveren 1–2 Lommel United · D. Konadu
54′⚽ GOAL · 56' SK Beveren 1–2 Lommel United · L. Schoofs
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' SK Beveren 1–3 Lommel United · L. Schoofs
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SK Beveren · On: A. Verschueren · Off: J. Margaritha
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' SK Beveren · On: V. Olatunji · Off: E. Kabore
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' S. Dewaele · SK Beveren
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Lommel United · On: T. Gooijer · Off: I. Dada-Mascoll
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SK Beveren · On: I. Najim · Off: C. Conde
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SK Beveren · On: L. Mertens · Off: C. Lokesa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lommel United · On: D. Gordic · Off: T. Reyners
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lommel United · On: N. Corthouts · Off: S. Appuah
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lommel United · On: A. Reumers · Off: D. Konadu
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' SK Beveren · On: D. Thompson · Off: C. Konate
FTFULL TIME SK Beveren 1–3 Lommel United
FTSK Beveren 1–3 Lommel United · Lommel United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SK Beveren win34%

Draw28%

Lommel United win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Freethiel Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SK Beveren

4-2-3-1

1 J. Schenk

25 C. Konate

35 Y. Gomis

31 B. Godeau

4 C. Janssens

18 S. Dewaele

44 C. Conde

5 C. Lokesa

22 C. Bruls

17 J. Margaritha

9 E. Kabore

Coach · Tim Bakens

Substitutes

84 · J. Lusamba

2 · D. Thompson

48 · J. Robatsch

7 · I. Najim

24 · A. Verschueren

8 · F. Slegers

92 · L. Mertens

33 · V. Olatunji

11 · J. Diouf

Lommel United

4-2-3-1

23 M. Pieklak

2 J. van Duiven

3 T. Eyoma

8 N. Rommens

4 S. Adewoye

15 L. Schoofs

44 I. Dada-Mascoll

7 J. Talvitie

10 T. Reyners

11 S. Appuah

9 D. Konadu

Coach · Lee Johnson

Substitutes

33 · R. Vercauteren

1 · N. Ivezic

47 · T. Gooijer

22 · D. Gordic

46 · N. Corthouts

17 · E. Vandecraen

60 · L. Beirinckx

73 · A. Reumers

12 · E. Odede

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SK Beveren

4-2-3-1

1 J. Schenk

25 C. Konate

35 Y. Gomis

31 B. Godeau

4 C. Janssens

18 S. Dewaele

44 C. Conde

5 C. Lokesa

22 C. Bruls

17 J. Margaritha

9 E. Kabore

Coach · Tim Bakens

Substitutes

84 · J. Lusamba

2 · D. Thompson

48 · J. Robatsch

7 · I. Najim

24 · A. Verschueren

8 · F. Slegers

92 · L. Mertens

33 · V. Olatunji

11 · J. Diouf

Lommel United

4-2-3-1

23 M. Pieklak

2 J. van Duiven

3 T. Eyoma

8 N. Rommens

4 S. Adewoye

15 L. Schoofs

44 I. Dada-Mascoll

7 J. Talvitie

10 T. Reyners

11 S. Appuah

9 D. Konadu

Coach · Lee Johnson

Substitutes

33 · R. Vercauteren

1 · N. Ivezic

47 · T. Gooijer

22 · D. Gordic

46 · N. Corthouts

17 · E. Vandecraen

60 · L. Beirinckx

73 · A. Reumers

12 · E. Odede

Our number · lommel united winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

38% The market23%

Us38%

~~Market~~23%

We make Lommel United a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lommel united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 24% to 23% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SK Beveren win	34%	53%	−19
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Lommel United win	38%	23%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	46%	60%	−14
Both teams to score	51%	61%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	72%	81%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	25%	39%	−14
SK Beveren or draw	62%	77%	−15
SK Beveren clean sheet	28%	–	–
Lommel United clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.0 9.9 6.8 3.0 1 9.2 13.0 8.0 3.6 2 5.9 7.5 4.9 2.2 3 2.5 3.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SK Beveren down, Lommel United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,674 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

SK Beveren at home: 2.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 3). Lommel United away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for SK Beveren, 1.31 for Lommel United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League

SK BEVEREN

WLLWWL1–0 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

LOMMEL UNITED

LWWLLD0–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
2	Gent	7	+9	19
3	Club Brugge KV	7	+12	18
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
5	Anderlecht	7	+2	13
6	Zulte Waregem	7	+3	11
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11
8	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
9	Genk	7	+1	9
10	SK Beveren	7	−4	9
11	St. Truiden	7	0	8
12	Lommel United	7	−2	8
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7
14	RAAL La Louvière	7	−7	4
15	OH Leuven	7	−8	4
16	Cercle Brugge	7	−6	3
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3
18	Kortrijk	7	−13	3