RAAL La Louvière v Zulte Waregem prediction · Jupiler Pro League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

RAAL La Louvière 3–0 Zulte Waregem ZULTE WAREGEM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zulte Waregem win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.664

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.721

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zulte Waregem win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zulte Waregem 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF RAAL La Louvière v Zulte Waregem
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' M. Wade · RAAL La Louvière
37′We said Zulte Waregem at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 65–23–12
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 65–23–12
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Zulte Waregem
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Zulte Waregem win: 40% at kick-off, 12% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' RAAL La Louvière win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Zulte Waregem win 35%)
38′37′: N. Gillot on the scoresheet for RAAL La Louvière, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 66–23–12
44′We said Zulte Waregem at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Zulte Waregem win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' RAAL La Louvière 2–0 Zulte Waregem
45′RAAL La Louvière ahead on 44′ through M. Isah. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
45′SECOND HALF RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Zulte Waregem
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 46' RAAL La Louvière
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' M. Isah · RAAL La Louvière
48′We said Zulte Waregem at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' RAAL La Louvière 2–0 Zulte Waregem
49′HALF-TIME RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Zulte Waregem
50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' RAAL La Louvière
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' S. Gourville · RAAL La Louvière
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Zulte Waregem · On: T. Claes · Off: S. Ujka
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Zulte Waregem · On: T. Hedl · Off: O. Niang
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' RAAL La Louvière · On: L. Rousseau · Off: Z. Gruber
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' RAAL La Louvière 2–0 Zulte Waregem
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Zulte Waregem win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zulte Waregem · On: N. Mituljikic · Off: Z. Atrok
74′RAAL La Louvière ahead on 73′ through N. Gillot. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' RAAL La Louvière · On: M. Boukamir · Off: M. Wade
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' RAAL La Louvière · On: A. Tajaouart · Off: I. Coulibaly
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' RAAL La Louvière · On: E. Filet · Off: M. Isah
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Zulte Waregem · On: H. Akpa-Chukwu · Off: B. De Jaegere
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' RAAL La Louvière 3–0 Zulte Waregem
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' A. Ementa · Zulte Waregem
85′L. Rousseau scores for RAAL La Louvière on 84′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' M. Courcoul · RAAL La Louvière
93′3–0 at the end. Our 40% on Zulte Waregem misses, and the record keeps it. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME RAAL La Louvière 3–0 Zulte Waregem
FTRAAL La Louvière 3–0 Zulte Waregem · Zulte Waregem win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zulte Waregem are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RAAL La Louvière 34%, draw 26%, Zulte Waregem 40%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on RAAL La Louvière v Zulte WaregemBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

RAAL La Louvière win34%

Draw26%

Zulte Waregem win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEasi Arena

RefereeM. Ledda

Line-ups

RAAL La Louvière

5-3-2

Zulte Waregem

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RAAL La Louvière

Zulte Waregem

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Belgian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
16	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

RAAL La Louvière

5-3-2

21 Marcos Hernán Peano

29 Marius Courcoul

4 Wagane Faye

22 Siad Gourville

25 Djibril Lamego

3 Nolan Gillot

48 Ismaila Coulibaly

10 Mame Wade

5 Thierry Lutonda

30 Zsombor Gruber

11 Mustapha Isah

Coach · –

Substitutes

91 · Théo Radelet

33 · Patrick Nkoa

99 · Yllan Okou

78 · Anas Tajaouart

7 · Mátyás Kovács

9 · Elias Filet

90 · Léandro Rousseau

43 · Quentin Benaets

Zulte Waregem

4-3-3

13 Brent Gabriel

45 Benoit De Jaegere

4 Laurent Lemoine

5 Jakob Kiilerich

15 Youssoupha Mbodji

36 Serxho Ujka

6 Enrique Lofolomo

11 Marley Aké

22 Ousseynou Niang

18 Anosike Ementa

21 István Átrok

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Louis Bostyn

55 · Yannick Cappelle

49 · Franz Tangala

8 · Thomas Claes

25 · Tristan Panduro

7 · Nikola Mituljikić

20 · Tobias Hedl

53 · Kewan Vemba

90 · Akpa Chukwu Hemsley

Our number · zulte waregem winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Zulte Waregem a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RAAL La Louvière v Zulte Waregem~~1.33 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 11~~16 v 8

~~The market · Zulte Waregem win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Zulte Waregem win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RAAL La Louvière win	34%	31%	+3
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Zulte Waregem win	40%	41%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	49%	+4
Both teams to score	57%	54%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	28%	+3
RAAL La Louvière or draw	60%	59%	+1
RAAL La Louvière clean sheet	23%	–	–
Zulte Waregem clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.8 8.4 6.5 3.2 1 7.6 12.3 8.5 4.2 2 5.4 7.8 5.7 2.8 3 2.4 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RAAL La Louvière down, Zulte Waregem across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,683 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RAAL La Louvière at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zulte Waregem away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for RAAL La Louvière, 1.47 for Zulte Waregem. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ZUL 4–0 RAA · RAA 0–2 ZUL · ZUL 2–2 RAA · RAA 0–0 ZUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 21 Aug

RAAL LA LOUVIÈRE

LDLWLL0–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–4

ZULTE WAREGEM

WDWLLL4–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	8	+9	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	8	+3	13
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Lommel United	8	0	11
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
13	Antwerp	8	−8	7
14	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
15	OH Leuven	8	−8	5
16	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3