OH Leuven v Lommel United prediction · Jupiler Pro League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

OH Leuven 2–2 Lommel United LOMMEL UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lommel United win~~38%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.763

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.875

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lommel United win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Lommel United was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 33–29–38
2′KICK-OFF OH Leuven v Lommel United
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' T. Ogiwara · OH Leuven
35′S. Appuah scores for Lommel United on 35′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–71
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lommel United win 35%)
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' OH Leuven 0–1 Lommel United · S. Appuah
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Lommel United win: 38% at kick-off, 71% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Lommel United win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 38%)
36′We published Lommel United at 38%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 8–21–71
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–71
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' S. Adewoye · Lommel United
45′HALF-TIME OH Leuven 0–1 Lommel United
46′SECOND HALF OH Leuven 0–1 Lommel United
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' OH Leuven · On: E. Addai · Off: L. Lakomy
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' S. Appuah · Lommel United
51′We published Lommel United at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Lommel United win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
65′65′: R. Mirisola on the scoresheet for OH Leuven, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–57–22
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' OH Leuven 1–1 Lommel United · R. Mirisola
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Lommel United win: 38% at kick-off, 22% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Lommel United win 79%)
66′We said Lommel United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 20–58–22
67′OH Leuven ahead on 67′ through E. Addai. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
67′We said Lommel United at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–1 · 79–18–3
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' OH Leuven 2–1 Lommel United · E. Addai
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Lommel United win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' OH Leuven win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 59%)
68′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 79–18–3
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' R. Mirisola · OH Leuven
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lommel United · On: T. Reyners · Off: J. Pelupessy
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lommel United · On: N. Rommens · Off: J. Tolinsson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' OH Leuven · On: K. Vaesen · Off: R. Mirisola
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' OH Leuven · On: T. Vlietinck · Off: D. Opoku
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lommel United · On: H. Oware · Off: S. Adewoye
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Lommel United · On: N. Corthouts · Off: S. Appuah
87′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' OH Leuven 3–1 Lommel United
88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' OH Leuven
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' OH Leuven · On: A. Fontanarosa · Off: T. Ogiwara
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' OH Leuven 2–2 Lommel United · J. van Duiven (assist S. Nypan)
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was OH Leuven win 99%)
97′21 shots for OH Leuven, 12 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 1–97–1
FTFULL TIME OH Leuven 2–2 Lommel United
FTOH Leuven 2–2 Lommel United · Lommel United win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lommel United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: OH Leuven 33%, draw 29%, Lommel United 38%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on OH Leuven v Lommel UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

OH Leuven win33%

Draw29%

Lommel United win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:15

RoundMatchday 9

VenueDen Dreef

RefereeJ. Boterberg

Line-ups

OH Leuven

3-4-3

Lommel United

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

OH Leuven

Lommel United

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · the Belgian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lommel United	8	0	11
15	OH Leuven	8	−8	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

OH Leuven

3-4-3

1 Dani van den Heuvel

28 Ewoud Pletinckx

5 Jamie Lawrence

34 Roggerio Nyakossi

99 Davis Opoku

6 Wouter George

8 Siebe Schrijvers

26 Takuya Ogiwara

21 William Balikwisha

18 Robin Mirisola

24 Łukasz Łakomy

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Kiany Vroman

98 · Tibo Peys

30 · Alessandro Fontanarosa

77 · Thibault Vlietinck

72 · Sebastian Murru

7 · Emmanuel Addai

48 · Bryang Kayo

20 · Shin Yamada

19 · Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi

17 · Kyan Vaesen

Lommel United

4-2-3-1

23 Matthias Pieklak

2 Jason van Duiven

3 Timothy Eyoma

14 Jesper Tolinsson

4 Shawn Adewoye

15 Lucas Schoofs

6 Joey Pelupessy

7 Juho Talvitie

41 Sverre Nypan

11 Stredair Appuah

9 Don-Angelo Konadu

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Nikola Ivezić

44 · Isaiah Dada-Mascoll

34 · Henry Oware

47 · Tristan Gooijer

8 · Nicolas Rommens

10 · Tom Reyners

22 · Đorđe Gordić

46 · Niek Corthouts

73 · Alexander Reumers

Our number · lommel united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market26%

Us38%

~~Market~~26%

We make Lommel United a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · OH Leuven v Lommel United~~1.14 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~15 v 10

~~The market · Lommel United win~~26% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lommel United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
OH Leuven win	33%	50%	−17
Draw	29%	25%	+4
Lommel United win	38%	26%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	43%	60%	−17
Both teams to score	49%	61%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	69%	80%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	22%	39%	−17
OH Leuven or draw	62%	74%	−12
OH Leuven clean sheet	29%	–	–
Lommel United clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.0 10.8 7.1 3.0 1 9.8 13.4 8.0 3.4 2 5.9 7.3 4.6 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+OH Leuven down, Lommel United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,683 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

OH Leuven at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lommel United away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for OH Leuven, 1.26 for Lommel United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 23 Aug

OH LEUVEN

LLLDWD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

LOMMEL UNITED

WWLLDW4–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	8	+9	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	8	+3	13
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Lommel United	8	0	11
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
13	Antwerp	8	−8	7
14	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
15	OH Leuven	8	−8	5
16	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3