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KVC Westerlo v Antwerp

KVC Westerlo

5–1Full time

Antwerp

Jupiler Pro League · SUN 11 OCT · Het Kuipje

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

KVC Westerlo 5–1 Antwerp KVC WESTERLO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KVC Westerlo win~~41%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KVC Westerlo win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: KVC Westerlo was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–24–34
21′I. Salah scores for Antwerp on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–61
22′I. Salah scores for Antwerp on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–22–61
25′We said KVC Westerlo at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–23–61
29′We said KVC Westerlo at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–23–62
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–62
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–63
36′We said KVC Westerlo at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
45′45′ and it is 1–1: C. Sandra on the scoresheet for KVC Westerlo. 1–1 · 34–37–29
46′45′ and it is 1–1: C. Sandra on the scoresheet for KVC Westerlo. 1–1 · 34–37–29
53′A red card for Antwerp on 51′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 32–41–27
59′We published KVC Westerlo at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
62′KVC Westerlo ahead on 60′ through N. Bassette. 2–1. 2–1 · 76–19–5
66′A red card for Antwerp on 51′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 78–18–4
68′KVC Westerlo ahead on 60′ through N. Bassette. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
71′We published KVC Westerlo at 41%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–17–3
74′E. Tsimba scores for KVC Westerlo on 72′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
77′We published KVC Westerlo at 41%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
80′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
83′We published KVC Westerlo at 41%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 90' KVC Westerlo · On: P. Diong · Off: C. Sandra
90′88′ and it is 4–1: L. Flo on the scoresheet for KVC Westerlo. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
92′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
95′KVC Westerlo ahead on 90′ through Yang Min-Hyuk. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 96' KVC Westerlo 4–1 Antwerp · Yang Min-Hyuk
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 100% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 95' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' KVC Westerlo 5–1 Antwerp · Yang Min-Hyuk
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 96' KVC Westerlo win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
FTFULL TIME KVC Westerlo 5–1 Antwerp
FTKVC Westerlo 5–1 Antwerp · KVC Westerlo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

KVC Westerlo win41%

Draw25%

Antwerp win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueHet Kuipje

RefereeB. Van Driessche

Line-ups

KVC Westerlo

4-2-3-1

Antwerp

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

KVC Westerlo

Antwerp

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

KVC Westerlo

4-2-3-1

99 A. Jungdal

2 L. Flo

5 S. Kimura

4 A. Lapage

28 D. Ourega

45 I. Fofana

14 C. Sandra

39 T. Van den Keybus

13 I. Sakamoto

7 S. Saito

9 N. Bassette

Coach · Issame Charai

Substitutes

1 · B. Lathouwers

23 · L. Mbamba-Muanda

40 · B. Balogh

12 · R. Laalaoui

26 · P. Diong

17 · D. Amegnaglo

22 · E. Tsimba

47 · Yang Min-Hyuk

11 · N. Bohamdi-Kamoni

Antwerp

4-2-3-1

41 T. Nozawa

17 S. Renders

20 R. Van Helden

3 A. Cortes

5 D. Foulon

8 M. Benitez

48 A. Vermeeren

14 X. Dierckx

24 T. Somers

7 I. Salah

9 M. Frey

Coach · Marvin Compper

Substitutes

81 · N. Devalckeneer

44 · M. Busi

4 · Y. Tsunashima

28 · L. Schelfhout

10 · C. Scott

22 · F. Adekami

25 · M. Fofana

33 · S. Porozo

99 · L. Narh

Our number · kvc westerlo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

41% The market49%

Us41%

~~Market~~49%

We make KVC Westerlo a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kvc westerlo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. The market has gone from 45% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KVC Westerlo win	41%	49%	−7
Draw	25%	25%	+1
Antwerp win	33%	27%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	63%	−5
Both teams to score	60%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	42%	−7
KVC Westerlo or draw	67%	73%	−6
KVC Westerlo clean sheet	25%	–	–
Antwerp clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.6 6.5 4.9 2.4 1 7.4 11.6 7.7 3.7 2 6.3 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 3.4 4.7 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KVC Westerlo down, Antwerp across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,679 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KVC Westerlo at home: 2.17 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Antwerp away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for KVC Westerlo, 1.41 for Antwerp. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ANT 2–0 KVC · KVC 2–4 ANT · ANT 0–2 KVC · KVC 2–0 ANT

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League

KVC WESTERLO

LLDWWW2–3 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 2–0

ANTWERP

WDLLLL3–0 · 4–4 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	Genk	8	+4	12
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
9	Lommel United	8	0	11
10	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	7	0	8
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7
14	OH Leuven	7	−8	4
15	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4
16	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3
18	Kortrijk	8	−16	3