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KV Mechelen v St. Truiden

KV Mechelen

4–3Full time

St. Truiden

Jupiler Pro League · SUN 11 OCT · Achter de Kazerne

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

KV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden ST. TRUIDEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St. Truiden win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.618

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.727

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St. Truiden win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: St. Truiden 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
4′Little has changed for our model: St. Truiden 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 36–25–38
26′24′ and it is 1–0: K. Takai on the scoresheet for KV Mechelen. 1–0 · 64–22–14
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 37% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
30′24′ and it is 1–0: K. Takai on the scoresheet for KV Mechelen. 1–0 · 65–22–13
33′We said St. Truiden at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 66–22–12
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' KV Mechelen 2–0 St. Truiden · S. Michez
36′KV Mechelen ahead on 34′ through S. Michez. 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
39′KV Mechelen ahead on 34′ through S. Michez. 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' St. Truiden win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' KV Mechelen 3–0 St. Truiden · S. Taniguchi
42′S. Taniguchi scores for KV Mechelen on 39′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–0
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' K. Matsuzawa · St. Truiden
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' KV Mechelen 3–1 St. Truiden · S. Bazdar
45′44′ and it is 3–1: S. Bazdar on the scoresheet for St. Truiden. 3–1 · 90–8–2
45′We said St. Truiden at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 90–8–2
45′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 90–8–2
45′HALF-TIME KV Mechelen 3–1 St. Truiden
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' St. Truiden · On: N. Ishiwatari · Off: K. Matsuzawa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' St. Truiden · On: N. Mbuku · Off: R. Araki
46′SECOND HALF KV Mechelen 3–1 St. Truiden
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' KV Mechelen 3–2 St. Truiden · I. Sebaoui
53′St. Truiden ahead on 49′ through I. Sebaoui. 3–2. 3–2 · 71–22–8
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' M. Decherf · KV Mechelen
55′St. Truiden ahead on 49′ through I. Sebaoui. 3–2. 3–2 · 71–22–7
56′We said St. Truiden at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 3–2 · 72–22–7
59′St. Truiden have had 9.0 attempts to 4.0 and it is still 3–2. 3–2 · 73–21–6
62′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 74–21–5
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' KV Mechelen 4–2 St. Truiden · S. Michez
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' KV Mechelen · On: C. Van Meirvenne · Off: B. Raman
65′B. Raman scores for KV Mechelen on 62′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 95–4–1
68′We said St. Truiden at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 4–2 · 96–3–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' St. Truiden · On: F. Soelle · Off: S. Bazdar
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' St. Truiden · On: S. Shinkawa · Off: R. Merlen
71′10.0 shots for St. Truiden, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 4–2 · 97–3–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' KV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden · F. Soelle
74′71′ and it is 4–3: F. Soelle on the scoresheet for St. Truiden. 4–3 · 82–16–2
77′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 84–14–2
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' KV Mechelen · On: M. Lohunanu-Mbasi · Off: B. Boersma
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' KV Mechelen · On: B. Antonio · Off: T. Koudou
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' KV Mechelen · On: L. Marijnissen · Off: M. Eerdhuijzen
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' KV Mechelen · On: D. Praet · Off: M. Decherf
84′St. Truiden have had 13.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 4–3. 4–3 · 91–8–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' N. Ishiwatari · St. Truiden
86′71′ and it is 4–3: F. Soelle on the scoresheet for St. Truiden. 4–3 · 94–6–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' S. Taniguchi · St. Truiden
90′St. Truiden have had 13.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 4–3. 4–3 · 100–0–0
90′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' F. Hammar · KV Mechelen
FTFULL TIME KV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden
FTKV Mechelen 4–3 St. Truiden · St. Truiden win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

KV Mechelen win36%

Draw26%

St. Truiden win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:15

VenueAchter de Kazerne

RefereeB. Verbeke

Line-ups

KV Mechelen

3-4-2-1

St. Truiden

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

KV Mechelen

St. Truiden

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	St. Truiden	7	0	8
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

KV Mechelen

3-4-2-1

13 N. Miras

20 K. Corbanie

44 M. Eerdhuijzen

3 J. Marsa

23 S. Michez

6 F. Hammar

30 M. Decherf

7 T. Koudou

14 B. Raman

9 M. van Brederode

28 B. Boersma

Coach · Frederic Vanderbiest

Substitutes

1 · O. De Wolf

2 · L. Marijnissen

4 · G. Diouf

10 · M. Kireev

26 · D. Praet

29 · B. Antonio

21 · H. Ozdemir

17 · C. Van Meirvenne

19 · M. Lohunanu-Mbasi

St. Truiden

Formation not confirmed

16 L. Kokubo

60 R. Vanwesemael

4 K. Takai

5 S. Taniguchi

3 T. Hata

14 R. Merlen

8 A. Sissako

38 K. Matsuzawa

71 R. Araki

10 I. Sebaoui

9 S. Bazdar

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · M. Lendfers

26 · V. Musliu

23 · J. Pupe

18 · N. Ishiwatari

22 · W. Janssens

11 · N. Mbuku

19 · F. Soelle

99 · S. Shinkawa

77 · O. Diouf

Our number · st. truiden winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make St. Truiden a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · st. truiden win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KV Mechelen win	36%	31%	+5
Draw	26%	27%	−1
St. Truiden win	38%	42%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
KV Mechelen or draw	62%	58%	+4
KV Mechelen clean sheet	23%	–	–
St. Truiden clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.2 7.6 5.9 2.9 1 7.3 12.0 8.4 4.1 2 5.6 8.2 6.0 2.9 3 2.7 3.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KV Mechelen down, St. Truiden across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,679 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.71 goals a meeting; 7 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KV Mechelen at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). St. Truiden away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for KV Mechelen, 1.47 for St. Truiden. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 14

~~Both scored~~8 of 14

~~Last meetings~~STT 3–0 KVM · KVM 1–4 STT · STT 1–0 KVM · KVM 1–3 STT

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League

KV MECHELEN

DLDLLD3–3 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–0

ST. TRUIDEN

DWLWLL3–3 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	Genk	8	+4	12
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
9	Lommel United	8	0	11
10	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	7	0	8
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7
14	OH Leuven	7	−8	4
15	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4
16	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3
18	Kortrijk	8	−16	3