KV Mechelen v Genk prediction · Jupiler Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KV MechelenDrawGenk

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Genk 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Genk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KV Mechelen 31%, draw 25%, Genk 44%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on KV Mechelen v GenkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

KV Mechelen win31%

Draw25%

Genk win44%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAchter de Kazerne

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KV Mechelen

Genk

13Days since last match14

Last match: 18 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · the Belgian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Genk	8	+4	12
15	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · genk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Genk a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KV Mechelen v Genk~~1.32 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~15 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KV Mechelen win	31%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Genk win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
KV Mechelen or draw	56%	–	–
KV Mechelen clean sheet	20%	–	–
Genk clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.0 8.1 6.9 3.8 1 6.5 11.7 9.0 4.9 2.0 2 4.6 7.4 5.9 3.2 3 2.1 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KV Mechelen down, Genk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KV Mechelen at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Genk away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for KV Mechelen, 1.62 for Genk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KVM 2–3 GEN · GEN 0–1 KVM · KVM 1–2 GEN · GEN 2–1 KVM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 22 Aug

KV MECHELEN

LDLLDW0–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 4–3

GENK

DWDDLW4–4 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	9	+6	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	9	+3	14
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Lommel United	9	0	12
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Zulte Waregem	9	−2	11
11	Antwerp	9	−5	10
12	SK Beveren	9	−6	10
13	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
14	RAAL La Louvière	9	−7	7
15	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
16	OH Leuven	9	−8	6
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3