Gent v Anderlecht prediction · Jupiler Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GentDrawAnderlecht

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Gent 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gent are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gent 41%, draw 27%, Anderlecht 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Gent v AnderlechtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Gent win41%

Draw27%

Anderlecht win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePlanet Group Arena

RefereeE. Lambrechts

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gent

Anderlecht

3Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gent winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Gent a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gent v Anderlecht~~1.44 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 30 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 22 v 16~~1 v 5

~~The market · Gent win~~40% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gent win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gent win	41%	40%	+1
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Anderlecht win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	47%	+3
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	27%	+1
Gent or draw	68%	70%	−2
Gent clean sheet	29%	–	–
Anderlecht clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.6 8.0 5.3 2.2 1 9.4 12.7 7.5 3.1 2 7.2 8.7 5.3 2.2 3 3.5 4.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gent down, Anderlecht across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gent at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Anderlecht away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Gent, 1.23 for Anderlecht. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GEN 1–1 AND · AND 3–1 GEN · GEN 4–2 AND · AND 1–0 GEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 30 Aug

GENT

WWWDWW2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

ANDERLECHT

LWDWWW0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	9	+6	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	9	+3	14
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Lommel United	9	0	12
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Zulte Waregem	9	−2	11
11	Antwerp	9	−5	10
12	SK Beveren	9	−6	10
13	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
14	RAAL La Louvière	9	−7	7
15	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
16	OH Leuven	9	−8	6
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3