Genk v Standard Liege prediction · Jupiler Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GenkDrawStandard Liege

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Genk 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Genk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Genk 55%, draw 25%, Standard Liege 20%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Genk v Standard LiegeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Genk win55%

Draw25%

Standard Liege win20%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueCegeka Arena

RefereeJ. Vergoote

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Genk

Standard Liege

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · the Belgian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Genk	8	+4	12
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · genk winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

55% The market54%

Us55%

~~Market~~54%

We make Genk a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Genk v Standard Liege~~1.67 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~7 v 9

~~The market · Genk win~~54% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Genk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Genk win	55%	54%	+1
Draw	25%	25%	0
Standard Liege win	20%	22%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	60%	−12
Both teams to score	49%	60%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	73%	81%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	26%	39%	−13
Genk or draw	80%	78%	+2
Genk clean sheet	40%	–	–
Standard Liege clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 8.2 6.4 3.2 1 12.0 11.9 5.2 2 10.4 9.5 4.4 3 5.8 5.3 2.4 4 2.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Genk down, Standard Liege across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Genk at home: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Standard Liege away: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Genk, 0.92 for Standard Liege. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STA 0–0 GEN · GEN 1–1 STA · GEN 0–3 STA · STA 2–1 GEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 21 Aug

GENK

DWDDLW4–4 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–0

STANDARD LIEGE

WWWLLL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	9	+6	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	9	+3	14
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Lommel United	9	0	12
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Zulte Waregem	9	−2	11
11	Antwerp	9	−5	10
12	SK Beveren	9	−6	10
13	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
14	RAAL La Louvière	9	−7	7
15	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
16	OH Leuven	9	−8	6
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3