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Genk v Kortrijk

Genk

3–0Full time

Kortrijk

Jupiler Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Cegeka Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Genk 3–0 Kortrijk GENK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Genk win~~67%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.165

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.157

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Genk win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Genk was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–13
2′D. Heymans scores for Genk on 3′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 67–19–13
5′We published Genk at 67%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
12′D. Heymans scores for Genk on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
14′13′ and it is 2–0: H. Murray-Campbell on the scoresheet for Genk. 2–0 · 96–3–1
18′13′ and it is 2–0: H. Murray-Campbell on the scoresheet for Genk. 2–0 · 96–3–1
20′We published Genk at 67%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
45′HALF-TIME Genk 2–0 Kortrijk
45′SECOND HALF Genk 2–0 Kortrijk
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' S. Campbell · Kortrijk
48′🟥 RED CARD · 49' S. Campbell · Kortrijk
48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' S. Campbell · Kortrijk
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Genk win: 67% at kick-off, 96% now
61′⚽ GOAL · 63' Genk 2–0 Kortrijk · R. Durosinmi
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Genk 3–0 Kortrijk · R. Durosinmi
66′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Genk · On: J. Erenbjerg · Off: B. Tahirovic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kortrijk · On: J. van Landschoot · Off: A. Phillips
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kortrijk · On: S. Ogbuehi · Off: G. Koyalipou
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' J. Kayembe · Genk
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Genk · On: A. Bibout · Off: R. Durosinmi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Genk · On: M. Roganovic · Off: J. Kayembe
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Genk · On: J. Afriyie · Off: J. Ito
78′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kortrijk · On: L. De Smet · Off: B. Dejaegere
78′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kortrijk · On: J. Ndjeungoue · Off: M. Anderson
78′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kortrijk · On: M. Fofana · Off: R. Kohon
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Genk · On: A. De Wannemacker · Off: D. Heymans
FTFULL TIME Genk 3–0 Kortrijk
FTGenk 3–0 Kortrijk · Genk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Genk win67%

Draw20%

Kortrijk win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Cegeka Arena

Referee · W. Smet

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Genk

4-3-3

28 L. Brughmans

20 K. Amaro

6 M. Smets

44 J. Kongolo

18 J. Kayembe

4 B. Tahirovic

38 D. Heymans

8 B. Heynen

10 J. Ito

17 R. Durosinmi

32 N. Adedeji-Sternberg

Coach · Jess Thorup

Substitutes

1 · T. Leysen

5 · C. Ravych

25 · M. Roganovic

56 · A. De Wannemacker

21 · I. Bangoura

11 · J. Erenbjerg

23 · A. Bibout

30 · A. Yokoyama

33 · J. Afriyie

Kortrijk

4-3-3

1 P. Gunnarsson

36 R. Kohon

21 A. Drouhin

4 H. Murray-Campbell

3 M. Anderson

19 B. Dejaegere

35 B. Lambert

70 A. Phillips

11 S. Campbell

10 G. Koyalipou

68 T. Ambrose

Coach · Daniel Beichler

Substitutes

13 · E. De Vlaeminck

22 · G. Ruyssen

5 · J. Ndjeungoue

15 · M. Fofana

71 · K. Masui

6 · L. De Smet

18 · J. van Landschoot

7 · S. Podgoreanu

90 · S. Ogbuehi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Genk

4-3-3

28 L. Brughmans

20 K. Amaro

6 M. Smets

44 J. Kongolo

18 J. Kayembe

4 B. Tahirovic

38 D. Heymans

8 B. Heynen

10 J. Ito

17 R. Durosinmi

32 N. Adedeji-Sternberg

Coach · Jess Thorup

Substitutes

1 · T. Leysen

5 · C. Ravych

25 · M. Roganovic

56 · A. De Wannemacker

21 · I. Bangoura

11 · J. Erenbjerg

23 · A. Bibout

30 · A. Yokoyama

33 · J. Afriyie

Kortrijk

4-3-3

1 P. Gunnarsson

36 R. Kohon

21 A. Drouhin

4 H. Murray-Campbell

3 M. Anderson

19 B. Dejaegere

35 B. Lambert

70 A. Phillips

11 S. Campbell

10 G. Koyalipou

68 T. Ambrose

Coach · Daniel Beichler

Substitutes

13 · E. De Vlaeminck

22 · G. Ruyssen

5 · J. Ndjeungoue

15 · M. Fofana

71 · K. Masui

6 · L. De Smet

18 · J. van Landschoot

7 · S. Podgoreanu

90 · S. Ogbuehi

Our number · genk winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

67% The market68%

Us67%

~~Market~~68%

We make Genk a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · genk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 65% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Genk win	67%	68%	−1
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Kortrijk win	13%	13%	0
Over 2.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	43%	−8
Genk or draw	87%	87%	0
Genk clean sheet	44%	–	–
Kortrijk clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.8%

0123450 5.8 3.9 1 10.7 9.5 3.7 2 11.8 9.5 3.9 3 8.4 6.7 2.8 4 4.6 3.7 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Genk down, Kortrijk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,675 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Genk at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kortrijk away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Genk, 0.82 for Kortrijk. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GEN 3–2 KOR · KOR 2–1 GEN · GEN 4–0 KOR · KOR 0–3 GEN

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League

GENK

WDWDDL3–2 · 4–4 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3

KORTRIJK

LLLLLW0–3 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
2	Gent	7	+9	19
3	Club Brugge KV	7	+12	18
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
5	Anderlecht	7	+2	13
6	Zulte Waregem	7	+3	11
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11
8	Lommel United	8	0	11
9	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
10	Genk	7	+1	9
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	7	0	8
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7
14	RAAL La Louvière	7	−7	4
15	OH Leuven	7	−8	4
16	Cercle Brugge	7	−6	3
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3
18	Kortrijk	7	−13	3