Club Brugge KV v St. Truiden prediction · Jupiler Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Club Brugge KVDrawSt. Truiden

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Club Brugge KV 69%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Brugge KV are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Brugge KV 69%, draw 18%, St. Truiden 13%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Club Brugge KV v St. TruidenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Club Brugge KV win69%

Draw18%

St. Truiden win13%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueJan Breydel Stadion

RefereeN. Verboomen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Brugge KV

St. Truiden

4Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
13	St. Truiden	8	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club brugge kv winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

69% The market70%

Us69%

~~Market~~70%

We make Club Brugge KV a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Club Brugge KV v St. Truiden~~2.48 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 23 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 8~~2 v 13

~~The market · Club Brugge KV win~~70% · ours 69%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Brugge KV win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Club Brugge KV win	69%	70%	−1
Draw	18%	17%	+1
St. Truiden win	13%	13%	0
Over 2.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Club Brugge KV or draw	87%	87%	0
Club Brugge KV clean sheet	37%	–	–
St. Truiden clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 2.8 1 7.3 8.0 3.9 2 9.3 9.3 4.7 3 7.6 7.6 3.9 4 4.8 4.7 2.4 5 2.4 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Club Brugge KV down, St. Truiden across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,687 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Club Brugge KV at home: 3.33 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). St. Truiden away: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.48 goals for Club Brugge KV, 1.01 for St. Truiden. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CLU 2–0 STT · STT 1–2 CLU · STT 3–2 CLU · CLU 2–0 STT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 23 Aug

CLUB BRUGGE KV

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 4–1

ST. TRUIDEN

WLWLLL4–1 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	9	+6	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	9	+3	14
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Lommel United	9	0	12
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Zulte Waregem	9	−2	11
11	Antwerp	9	−5	10
12	SK Beveren	9	−6	10
13	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
14	RAAL La Louvière	9	−7	7
15	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
16	OH Leuven	9	−8	6
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3