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Cercle Brugge v Anderlecht

Cercle Brugge

1–2Full time

Anderlecht

Jupiler Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Jan Breydel Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Cercle Brugge 1–2 Anderlecht ANDERLECHT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Anderlecht win~~39%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.391

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Anderlecht win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Anderlecht 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
1′KICK-OFF Cercle Brugge v Anderlecht
6′🟨 YELLOW · 4' S. Ngoura · Cercle Brugge
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Cercle Brugge 0–0 Anderlecht · A. Manneh (assist L. Le Roux)
14′Cercle Brugge ahead on 11′ through A. Manneh. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–17
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Cercle Brugge 1–0 Anderlecht · A. Manneh
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Anderlecht win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Cercle Brugge win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Anderlecht win 17%)
19′We said Anderlecht at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 62–22–16
28′We said Anderlecht at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
30′We said Anderlecht at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 65–23–12
45′SECOND HALF Cercle Brugge 1–0 Anderlecht
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Anderlecht · On: M. Cvetkovic · Off: D. Sikan
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Anderlecht · On: O. Antman · Off: L. Ambros
48′We said Anderlecht at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Anderlecht win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cercle Brugge · On: D. Vanzeir · Off: A. Manneh
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cercle Brugge · On: V. Martens · Off: C. Herrmann
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Anderlecht · On: M. Stroeykens · Off: M. Kana
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Anderlecht · On: A. Bertaccini · Off: L. Augustinsson
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cercle Brugge · On: L. Mondele · Off: H. van der Bruggen
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cercle Brugge · On: A. K. Ouattara · Off: T. Akinsola
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cercle Brugge · On: L. Mondele · Off: H. van der Bruggen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cercle Brugge · On: A. K. Ouattara · Off: T. Akinsola
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cercle Brugge · On: L. Mondele · Off: H. van der Bruggen
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Cercle Brugge · On: A. K. Ouattara · Off: T. Akinsola
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Anderlecht · On: T. Aasgaard · Off: I. Koutsoupias
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cercle Brugge · On: K. Kouassi · Off: S. Ngoura
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Cercle Brugge 1–0 Anderlecht · T. Bentayeb
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Cercle Brugge 1–1 Anderlecht · T. Bentayeb
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' K. Barry · Anderlecht
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' O. Antman · Anderlecht
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Cercle Brugge 1–1 Anderlecht · A. Bertaccini
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Cercle Brugge 1–2 Anderlecht · A. Bertaccini
FTFULL TIME Cercle Brugge 1–2 Anderlecht
FTCercle Brugge 1–2 Anderlecht · Anderlecht win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cercle Brugge win35%

Draw26%

Anderlecht win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Jan Breydel Stadion

Referee · K. van Damme

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cercle Brugge

4-2-3-1

1 G. Coucke

15 G. Magnee

5 E. Kakou

24 G. Kondo

12 V. Konate

18 L. Le Roux

28 H. van der Bruggen

11 C. Herrmann

20 A. Manneh

30 T. Akinsola

9 S. Ngoura

Coach · Lars Friis

Substitutes

21 · Y. Lienard

2 · I. Diakite

33 · R. Caicedo

10 · L. Amani

42 · L. Mondele

71 · V. Martens

41 · K. Kouassi

13 · D. Vanzeir

7 · A. K. Ouattara

Anderlecht

4-2-3-1

26 C. Coosemans

79 A. Maamar

50 K. Barry

27 L. Petrot

6 L. Augustinsson

55 M. Kana

30 I. Koutsoupias

18 L. Ambros

14 D. Sikan

10 M. Winkler

21 T. Bentayeb

Coach · Vitor Bruno

Substitutes

32 · J. Heekeren

2 · Z. Keita

19 · T. Aasgaard

8 · R. Amane

29 · M. Stroeykens

91 · A. Bertaccini

11 · O. Antman

9 · M. Cvetkovic

83 · T. Degreef

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cercle Brugge

4-2-3-1

1 G. Coucke

15 G. Magnee

5 E. Kakou

24 G. Kondo

12 V. Konate

18 L. Le Roux

28 H. van der Bruggen

11 C. Herrmann

20 A. Manneh

30 T. Akinsola

9 S. Ngoura

Coach · Lars Friis

Substitutes

21 · Y. Lienard

2 · I. Diakite

33 · R. Caicedo

10 · L. Amani

42 · L. Mondele

71 · V. Martens

41 · K. Kouassi

13 · D. Vanzeir

7 · A. K. Ouattara

Anderlecht

4-2-3-1

26 C. Coosemans

79 A. Maamar

50 K. Barry

27 L. Petrot

6 L. Augustinsson

55 M. Kana

30 I. Koutsoupias

18 L. Ambros

14 D. Sikan

10 M. Winkler

21 T. Bentayeb

Coach · Vitor Bruno

Substitutes

32 · J. Heekeren

2 · Z. Keita

19 · T. Aasgaard

8 · R. Amane

29 · M. Stroeykens

91 · A. Bertaccini

11 · O. Antman

9 · M. Cvetkovic

83 · T. Degreef

Our number · anderlecht winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market49%

Us39%

~~Market~~49%

We make Anderlecht a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · anderlecht win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cercle Brugge win	35%	26%	+9
Draw	26%	25%	0
Anderlecht win	39%	49%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	38%	−4
Cercle Brugge or draw	61%	51%	+10
Cercle Brugge clean sheet	22%	–	–
Anderlecht clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.1 7.6 6.2 3.1 1 7.1 11.9 8.5 4.3 2 5.4 8.0 6.0 3.0 3 2.6 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cercle Brugge down, Anderlecht across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,675 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 6 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cercle Brugge at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Anderlecht away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Cercle Brugge, 1.51 for Anderlecht. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:06. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 12

~~Both scored~~3 of 12

~~Last meetings~~AND 2–3 CER · CER 0–2 AND · AND 3–0 CER · CER 0–5 AND

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League

CERCLE BRUGGE

DLLLDL3–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 2–3

ANDERLECHT

LLWDWW0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Union St. Gilloise	7	+18	19
2	Gent	7	+9	19
3	Club Brugge KV	7	+12	18
4	Charleroi	7	+8	18
5	Anderlecht	7	+2	13
6	Zulte Waregem	7	+3	11
7	Standard Liege	7	+1	11
8	Lommel United	8	0	11
9	KVC Westerlo	7	−1	10
10	Genk	7	+1	9
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	7	0	8
13	Antwerp	7	−4	7
14	RAAL La Louvière	7	−7	4
15	OH Leuven	7	−8	4
16	Cercle Brugge	7	−6	3
17	KV Mechelen	7	−9	3
18	Kortrijk	7	−13	3