Antwerp v Charleroi prediction · Jupiler Pro League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Antwerp 3–0 Charleroi ANTWERP WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Antwerp win~~38%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.577

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.927

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Antwerp win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Antwerp 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF Antwerp v Charleroi
8′We said Antwerp at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–14
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Antwerp 1–0 Charleroi
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Antwerp win: 38% at kick-off, 66% now
9′8′: T. Somers on the scoresheet for Antwerp, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–14
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' A. Ousou · Charleroi
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Antwerp win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
27′We said Antwerp at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Antwerp 2–0 Charleroi
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Antwerp win: 38% at kick-off, 89% now
28′Antwerp ahead on 27′ through S. Porozo. 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–3
30′We said Antwerp at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–3
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' C. Mejia · Antwerp
45′SECOND HALF Antwerp 2–0 Charleroi
46′We said Antwerp at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Antwerp 3–0 Charleroi
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Antwerp win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
47′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
47′T. Somers scores for Antwerp on 47′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
48′HALF-TIME Antwerp 2–0 Charleroi
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Charleroi · On: G. Nawata · Off: F. Mbemba
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Charleroi · On: I. Cisse · Off: A. Boukamir
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Antwerp · On: M. Frey · Off: S. Porozo
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Antwerp · On: C. Scott · Off: B. Deuff
62′We said Antwerp at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Antwerp · On: M. Fofana · Off: C. Mejia
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Charleroi · On: T. Rowe · Off: K. Van Den Kerkhof
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Charleroi · On: A. Bojang · Off: Y. Khalifi
71′14 shots for Charleroi, 5 the other way, and they still trail 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Charleroi · On: A. Colassin · Off: P. Pflucke
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Antwerp · On: M. Busi · Off: S. Renders
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Antwerp · On: X. Dierckx · Off: I. Salah
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' M. Nzita · Charleroi
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' G. Nawata · Charleroi
87′16 shots for Charleroi, 8 the other way, and they still trail 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 88' C. Scott · Antwerp
92′3–0 at the end. Our 38% on Antwerp comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Antwerp 3–0 Charleroi
FTAntwerp 3–0 Charleroi · Antwerp win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Antwerp just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Antwerp 38%, draw 28%, Charleroi 34%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Antwerp v CharleroiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Antwerp win38%

Draw28%

Charleroi win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueBosuilstadion

RefereeW. Smet

Line-ups

Antwerp

4-2-3-1

Charleroi

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Antwerp

Charleroi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Belgian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Charleroi	8	+9	21
13	Antwerp	8	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Antwerp

4-2-3-1

41 Taishi Brandon Nozawa

17 Semm Renders

20 Rein Van Helden

3 Álvaro Cortés

5 Daam Foulon

6 Bahmed Deuff

48 Arthur Vermeeren

80 Carlos Mejia

24 Thibo Somers

7 Ibrahim Salah

30 Snayder Porozo

Coach · –

Substitutes

81 · Niels Devalckeneer

4 · Yuto Tsunashima

44 · Maxime Busi

28 · Luca Schelfhout

10 · Christopher Scott

43 · Youssef Hamdaoui

25 · Modibo Fofana

14 · Xander Dierckx

9 · Michael Frey

Charleroi

4-2-3-1

30 Mohamed Koné

3 Kevin Van Den Kerkhof

4 Aiham Ousou

95 Cheick Keita

24 Mardochee Nzita

6 Amine Boukamir

18 Yassine Khalifi

14 Patrick Pflücke

8 Jakob Napoleon Romsaas

20 Freddy Mbemba

21 Aurélien Scheidler

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Martin Delavallée

33 · Noah Solheid

65 · Mory Kera

23 · Boubakar Dembaga

13 · Gaku Nawata

19 · Isaac Ismaël Cissé

2 · Triston Rowe

9 · Adama Bojang

25 · Antoine Colassin

Our number · antwerp winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market23%

Us38%

~~Market~~23%

We make Antwerp a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Antwerp v Charleroi~~1.31 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 21~~13 v 3

~~The market · Antwerp win~~23% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Antwerp win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Antwerp win	38%	23%	+15
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Charleroi win	34%	53%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	47%	56%	−9
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	77%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	34%	−9
Antwerp or draw	66%	47%	+19
Antwerp clean sheet	30%	–	–
Charleroi clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.7 9.1 5.9 2.5 1 9.8 13.1 7.7 3.2 2 6.8 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.0 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Antwerp down, Charleroi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,683 Jupiler Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Jupiler Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Antwerp at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Charleroi away: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Antwerp, 1.23 for Charleroi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ANT 0–1 CHA · CHA 2–1 ANT · ANT 0–2 CHA · CHA 1–1 ANT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Jupiler Pro League this season · since 22 Aug

ANTWERP

DLLLLL4–4 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–5

CHARLEROI

WWLWWW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gent	8	+11	22
2	Club Brugge KV	8	+15	21
3	Charleroi	8	+9	21
4	Union St. Gilloise	8	+18	20
5	Anderlecht	8	+3	16
6	KVC Westerlo	8	+3	13
7	Genk	8	+4	12
8	Zulte Waregem	8	+1	11
9	Standard Liege	8	0	11
10	Lommel United	8	0	11
11	SK Beveren	8	−6	9
12	St. Truiden	8	−1	8
13	Antwerp	8	−8	7
14	KV Mechelen	8	−8	6
15	OH Leuven	8	−8	5
16	RAAL La Louvière	8	−10	4
17	Kortrijk	8	−16	3
18	Cercle Brugge	8	−7	3