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Zelzate v Hoogstraten

Zelzate

1–4Full time

Hoogstraten

First Amateur Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Zelzate 1–4 Hoogstraten HOOGSTRATEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hoogstraten win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.472

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hoogstraten win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hoogstraten was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 33–22–45
7′Much as we predicted: Hoogstraten was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 33–23–44
22′A goal for Zelzate on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 58–22–20
28′A goal for Zelzate on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–22–19
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Hoogstraten win: 44% at kick-off, 45% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Hoogstraten win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Zelzate win 33%)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Hoogstraten win: 44% at kick-off, 20% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Zelzate win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Hoogstraten win 20%)
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Zelzate 1–1 Hoogstraten
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Hoogstraten win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Zelzate win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Hoogstraten win 19%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Hoogstraten win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Zelzate win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Hoogstraten win 19%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Hoogstraten win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Zelzate win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Hoogstraten win 19%)
45′HALF-TIME Zelzate 1–1 Hoogstraten
46′SECOND HALF Zelzate 1–1 Hoogstraten
46′⚽ GOAL · 19' Zelzate 1–2 Hoogstraten
46′⚽ GOAL · 34' Zelzate 1–2 Hoogstraten
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Zelzate 1–2 Hoogstraten
51′⚽ GOAL · 19' Zelzate 1–2 Hoogstraten
51′⚽ GOAL · 34' Zelzate 1–2 Hoogstraten
51′⚽ GOAL · 46' Zelzate 1–2 Hoogstraten
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Zelzate 1–3 Hoogstraten
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Zelzate 1–4 Hoogstraten
FTFULL TIME Zelzate 1–4 Hoogstraten
FTZelzate 1–4 Hoogstraten · Hoogstraten win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zelzate win33%

Draw22%

Hoogstraten win44%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hoogstraten winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Hoogstraten a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hoogstraten win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zelzate win	33%	35%	−2
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Hoogstraten win	44%	40%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	68%	60%	+8
Both teams to score	68%	64%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	79%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	47%	42%	+6
Zelzate or draw	56%	60%	−4
Zelzate clean sheet	15%	–	–
Hoogstraten clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 5.2 5.3 3.4 1 4.5 9.3 8.3 5.3 2.6 2 3.9 7.2 6.7 4.3 2.1 3 2.2 4.0 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zelzate down, Hoogstraten across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 First Amateur Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zelzate at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hoogstraten away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Zelzate, 1.92 for Hoogstraten. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ZEL 1–2 HOO · HOO 2–2 ZEL

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

ZELZATE

DLLLDD1–1 · 0–3 · 3–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1

HOOGSTRATEN

LDDLDW2–3 · 1–1 · 4–4 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	7	+5	16
2	Houtvenne	6	+9	15
3	Rochefort	7	+7	14
4	Meux	7	+5	14
5	Tubize	7	+2	14
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
7	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
8	Roeselare Daisel	6	+6	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Dessel Sport	6	+2	11
11	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Knokke	6	+2	10
14	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
15	Sporting Charleroi II	7	+1	9
16	Tienen	6	+4	8
17	Olympic Charleroi	6	−2	8
18	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
19	Heist	6	−3	7
20	Hoogstraten	6	+1	6
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	6	−7	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1