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Model 1.2

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Zelzate v Heist

Zelzate
1–5Full time
Heist

First Amateur Division · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41
Zelzate 1–5 Heist HEIST WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Heist win40%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.543
The market’s Brier score0.348

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Heist win at 40%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Heist was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 37–22–40
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zelzate v Heist
  4. 4′Zelzate score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 60–19–22
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Zelzate 1–0 Heist
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Heist win: 40% at kick-off, 22% now
  7. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Zelzate win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Heist win 40%)
  8. 5′We said Heist at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 60–19–21
  9. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Heist win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  10. 16′We said Heist at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 61–20–19
  11. 18′Heist find the net on 17′. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–25–39
  12. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Zelzate 1–1 Heist
  13. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Heist win: 40% at kick-off, 39% now
  14. 31′A goal for Heist on 30′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 15–20–65
  15. 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Zelzate 1–2 Heist
  16. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Heist win: 40% at kick-off, 65% now
  17. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Heist win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Zelzate win 61%)
  18. 32′We published Heist at 40%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–2 · 14–20–65
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Zelzate 1–2 Heist
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Zelzate 1–2 Heist
  21. 53′We published Heist at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
  22. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Heist win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
  23. 56′Heist score on 55′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–92
  24. 56′We published Heist at 40%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–3 · 2–7–92
  25. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Zelzate 1–3 Heist
  26. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Heist win: 40% at kick-off, 92% now
  27. 57′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–6–92
  28. 60′Heist find the net on 60′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  29. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Zelzate 1–4 Heist
  30. 61′We published Heist at 40%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  31. 61′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  32. 71′We published Heist at 40%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  33. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Heist win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
  34. 76′A goal for Heist on 76′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  35. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Zelzate 1–5 Heist
  36. 77′6 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  37. FTFULL TIME Zelzate 1–5 Heist
  38. FTZelzate 1–5 Heist · Heist win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Heist just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zelzate 37%, draw 22%, Heist 40%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Zelzate v HeistBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zelzate win37%
Draw22%
Heist win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundVV · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zelzate

Heist

7Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 21 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Heist8+111
27Zelzate8−123

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heist winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
40% The market52%
Us40%
Market52%

We make Heist a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zelzate v Heist1.77 – 1.85
Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 SeptW0 D2 L4 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 3 v 1127 v 14
The market · Heist win52% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 18:18
Our probability · Heist win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zelzate win37%24%+13
Draw22%24%−2
Heist win40%52%−12
Over 2.5 goals69%60%+9
Both teams to score69%60%+9
Over 1.5 goals87%77%+10
Over 3.5 goals48%40%+8
Zelzate or draw60%48%+12
Zelzate clean sheet16%––
Heist clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%
0123450 3.3 4.8 4.7 2.9 1 4.6 9.1 7.9 4.8 2.3 2 4.3 7.6 6.8 4.2 3 2.5 4.5 4.0 2.5 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zelzate down, Heist across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept

ZELZATE

LLDDLL3–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–3

HEIST

DLLWDW1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Houtvenne8+1221
2RWDM9+419
3Rochefort9+817
4Union Saint-Gilloise II9+717
5Meux9+317
6Mandel United8+716
7Oud-Heverlee Leuven II8+516
8Albert Quévy-Mons9+1015
9Roeselare Daisel8+815
10Merelbeke8+614
11Tubize9014
12Thes Sport9+413
13Olympic Charleroi8012
14Heist8+111
15Dessel Sport8−111
16Spouwen-Mopertingen9−211
17Hoogstraten8+410
18Standard Liège II8+110
19Sporting Charleroi II9−110
20Knokke8−310
21Tienen809
22Cercle Brugge II8−68
23Habay-la-Neuve8−56
24Lyra-Lierse Berlaar8−66
25Onhaye8−106
26Harelbeke8−174
27Zelzate8−123
28Flénu9−171

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.