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Model 1.2

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Thes Sport v Cercle Brugge II

Thes Sport
2–2Full time
Cercle Brugge II

First Amateur Division · SAT 17 OCT · Gemeentelijk Sportpark

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01
Thes Sport 2–2 Cercle Brugge II THES SPORT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Thes Sport win54%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.932
The market’s Brier score0.890

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Thes Sport win at 54%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Thes Sport was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Thes Sport v Cercle Brugge II
  4. 2′A goal for Thes Sport on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  5. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Thes Sport 1–0 Cercle Brugge II
  6. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 3′We published Thes Sport at 54%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  8. 7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' Thes Sport
  9. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 53% now
  10. 28′A goal for Thes Sport on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  11. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Thes Sport 1–0 Cercle Brugge II
  12. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
  13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  14. 43′Thes Sport score on 43′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  15. 43′We published Thes Sport at 54%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  16. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Thes Sport 2–0 Cercle Brugge II
  17. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
  18. 45′We published Thes Sport at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Thes Sport 2–0 Cercle Brugge II
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Thes Sport 2–0 Cercle Brugge II
  21. 51′Cercle Brugge II find the net on 50′. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–16–5
  22. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Thes Sport 2–1 Cercle Brugge II
  23. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
  24. 53′A goal for Cercle Brugge II on 53′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 39–40–21
  25. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Thes Sport 2–2 Cercle Brugge II
  26. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 39% now
  27. 54′We said Thes Sport at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–41–20
  28. 54′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 39–41–20
  29. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Thes Sport win 37%)
  30. 62′We said Thes Sport at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–47–18
  31. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
  32. 69′We said Thes Sport at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–55–16
  33. 74′We said Thes Sport at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–62–14
  34. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
  35. 78′We said Thes Sport at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–69–11
  36. 82′We said Thes Sport at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–78–8
  37. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
  38. 86′We said Thes Sport at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–6
  39. 92′We said Thes Sport at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
  40. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Thes Sport win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  41. FTFULL TIME Thes Sport 2–2 Cercle Brugge II
  42. FTThes Sport 2–2 Cercle Brugge II · Thes Sport win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Thes Sport are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thes Sport 54%, draw 23%, Cercle Brugge II 23%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Thes Sport v Cercle Brugge IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Thes Sport win54%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge II win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundVV · matchday 8

VenueGemeentelijk Sportpark

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thes Sport

Cercle Brugge II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 11 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
17Thes Sport7+19
22Cercle Brugge II7−67

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thes sport winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off
54% The market51%
Us54%
Market51%

We make Thes Sport a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Thes Sport v Cercle Brugge II1.90 – 1.16
Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 9 v 717 v 22
The market · Thes Sport win51% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 18:19
Our probability · Thes Sport win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Thes Sport win54%51%+3
Draw23%25%−2
Cercle Brugge II win23%24%−1
Over 2.5 goals59%58%+1
Both teams to score58%59%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%80%+1
Over 3.5 goals37%38%−1
Thes Sport or draw77%76%+1
Thes Sport clean sheet32%––
Cercle Brugge II clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 5.4 5.1 3.2 1 8.5 10.7 5.9 2.3 2 8.4 9.5 5.5 2.2 3 5.3 6.0 3.5 4 2.6 2.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Thes Sport down, Cercle Brugge II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsCER 1–1 THE · THE 1–1 CER · THE 3–0 CER · CER 0–4 THE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 Sept

THES SPORT

WDLWDL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

CERCLE BRUGGE II

LWLLLW1–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1RWDM8+619
2Houtvenne7+1118
3Rochefort8+1017
4Roeselare Daisel7+814
5Union Saint-Gilloise II8+514
6Meux8+214
7Tubize8+114
8Mandel United7+513
9Oud-Heverlee Leuven II7+213
10Albert Quévy-Mons8+812
11Merelbeke7+311
12Dessel Sport7011
13Sporting Charleroi II8+110
14Knokke7010
15Hoogstraten7+49
16Tienen7+49
17Thes Sport7+19
18Olympic Charleroi7−29
19Spouwen-Mopertingen708
20Heist7−38
21Standard Liège II707
22Cercle Brugge II7−67
23Lyra-Lierse Berlaar7−56
24Habay-la-Neuve8−56
25Onhaye8−106
26Harelbeke7−144
27Zelzate7−103
28Flénu8−161

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.