Standard Liège II v Onhaye prediction · First Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Standard Liège II 4–1 Onhaye STANDARD LIÈGE II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Standard Liège II win~~39%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.565

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.368

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Standard Liège II win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Standard Liège II was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–35
3′Much as we predicted: Standard Liège II was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–26–35
40′27′ and it is 1–0: Standard Liège II have scored. 1–0 · 69–21–9
42′Standard Liège II find the net on 41′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Standard Liège II win: 39% at kick-off, 91% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Standard Liège II win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
46′SECOND HALF Standard Liège II 2–0 Onhaye
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Standard Liège II 3–0 Onhaye
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Standard Liège II 3–1 Onhaye
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Standard Liège II 4–1 Onhaye
FTFULL TIME Standard Liège II 4–1 Onhaye
FTStandard Liège II 4–1 Onhaye · Standard Liège II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Standard Liège II win39%

Draw26%

Onhaye win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Standard Liège II

Onhaye

4Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · standard liège ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

39% The market50%

Us39%

~~Market~~50%

We make Standard Liège II a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · standard liège ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Standard Liège II win	39%	50%	−12
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Onhaye win	35%	25%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Standard Liège II or draw	65%	75%	−10
Standard Liège II clean sheet	26%	–	–
Onhaye clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 7.8 5.6 2.6 1 8.3 12.1 7.8 3.6 2 6.3 8.3 5.6 2.6 3 3.1 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Standard Liège II down, Onhaye across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Standard Liège II at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Onhaye away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Standard Liège II, 1.36 for Onhaye. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

STANDARD LIÈGE II

LLDLLW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

ONHAYE

WLWLLL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–5 · 1–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Meux	8	+2	14
6	Tubize	8	+1	14
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
8	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
11	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
17	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
18	Tienen	6	+4	8
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
20	Heist	6	−3	7
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	7	−10	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1