Standard Liège II v Flénu prediction · First Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Standard Liège II 1–0 Flénu STANDARD LIÈGE II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Standard Liège II win~~50%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.282

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Standard Liège II win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Standard Liège II was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–27
1′KICK-OFF Standard Liège II v Flénu
14′Standard Liège II score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–16–11
14′We published Standard Liège II at 50%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–16–11
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Standard Liège II 1–0 Flénu
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Standard Liège II win: 50% at kick-off, 73% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–17–9
37′We published Standard Liège II at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
45′HALF-TIME Standard Liège II 1–0 Flénu
46′SECOND HALF Standard Liège II 1–0 Flénu
64′We published Standard Liège II at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Standard Liège II win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
75′We published Standard Liège II at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
81′We published Standard Liège II at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Standard Liège II win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
88′We published Standard Liège II at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Standard Liège II 1–0 Flénu
FTStandard Liège II 1–0 Flénu · Standard Liège II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Standard Liège II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Standard Liège II 50%, draw 23%, Flénu 27%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Standard Liège II v FlénuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Standard Liège II win50%

Draw23%

Flénu win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundACFF · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Standard Liège II

Flénu

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Standard Liège II	8	+5	10
12	Flénu	8	−16	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · standard liège ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market57%

Us50%

~~Market~~57%

We make Standard Liège II a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Standard Liège II v Flénu~~1.91 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 1~~8 v 12

~~The market · Standard Liège II win~~57% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Standard Liège II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Standard Liège II win	50%	57%	−7
Draw	23%	23%	0
Flénu win	27%	20%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	60%	+2
Both teams to score	62%	58%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	+1
Standard Liège II or draw	73%	80%	−7
Standard Liège II clean sheet	27%	–	–
Flénu clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.7 5.0 3.6 1 7.2 10.2 6.5 2.9 2 7.1 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.5 5.8 3.8 4 2.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Standard Liège II down, Flénu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,895 First Amateur Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Standard Liège II at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Flénu away: 0.75 scored, 2.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Standard Liège II, 1.33 for Flénu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 6 Sept

STANDARD LIÈGE II

LDLLWW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 4–1

FLÉNU

DLLLLL2–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–4 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Meux	9	+8	19
2	RWDM	9	+4	19
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Union Saint-Gilloise II	9	+7	17
5	Tubize	9	0	14
6	Olympic Charleroi	9	−5	12
7	Albert Quévy-Mons	8	+3	11
8	Standard Liège II	8	+5	10
9	Sporting Charleroi II	9	−1	10
10	Onhaye	8	−10	6
11	Habay-la-Neuve	8	−5	6
12	Flénu	8	−16	1