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Spouwen-Mopertingen v Tienen

Spouwen-Mopertingen

2–2Full time

Tienen

First Amateur Division · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–2 Tienen SPOUWEN-MOPERTINGEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spouwen-Mopertingen win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.829

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spouwen-Mopertingen win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Spouwen-Mopertingen was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–28
6′A goal for Tienen on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 24–23–53
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 47% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Spouwen-Mopertingen win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Tienen win 28%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Tienen win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Spouwen-Mopertingen win 24%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 47% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Spouwen-Mopertingen win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Tienen win 28%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Tienen win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Spouwen-Mopertingen win 24%)
22′15′ and it is 1–1: Spouwen-Mopertingen have scored. 1–1 · 44–29–27
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Tienen win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Spouwen-Mopertingen win 24%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 47% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Spouwen-Mopertingen win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Tienen win 28%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 44% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Spouwen-Mopertingen win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Tienen win 27%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Tienen win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Spouwen-Mopertingen win 24%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 24% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Tienen win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Spouwen-Mopertingen win 24%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 47% at kick-off, 44% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Spouwen-Mopertingen win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Tienen win 27%)
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–1 Tienen
45′HALF-TIME Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–1 Tienen
46′SECOND HALF Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–1 Tienen
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–2 Tienen
57′🟥 RED CARD · 56' Spouwen-Mopertingen
FTFULL TIME Spouwen-Mopertingen 2–2 Tienen
FTSpouwen-Mopertingen 2–2 Tienen · Spouwen-Mopertingen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Spouwen-Mopertingen win47%

Draw25%

Tienen win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Spouwen-Mopertingen

Tienen

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Tienen	6	+4	8
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spouwen-mopertingen winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make Spouwen-Mopertingen a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spouwen-mopertingen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spouwen-Mopertingen win	47%	45%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Tienen win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Spouwen-Mopertingen or draw	72%	72%	0
Spouwen-Mopertingen clean sheet	30%	–	–
Tienen clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 6.4 4.2 1 8.7 11.6 6.8 2.9 2 7.6 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 4.3 5.1 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spouwen-Mopertingen down, Tienen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spouwen-Mopertingen at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tienen away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Spouwen-Mopertingen, 1.24 for Tienen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–2 TIE · TIE 0–5 SPO · TIE 1–0 SPO · SPO 0–4 TIE

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

SPOUWEN-MOPERTINGEN

DLWLWL1–1 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–1

TIENEN

LLWDWD3–4 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Meux	8	+2	14
6	Tubize	8	+1	14
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
8	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
11	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
17	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
18	Tienen	6	+4	8
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
20	Heist	6	−3	7
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	7	−10	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1