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Spouwen-Mopertingen v Thes Sport

Spouwen-Mopertingen

0–3Full time

Thes Sport

First Amateur Division · FRI 23 OCT

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

Spouwen-Mopertingen 0–3 Thes Sport SPOUWEN-MOPERTINGEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spouwen-Mopertingen win~~45%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.734

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.566

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spouwen-Mopertingen win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Spouwen-Mopertingen 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
1′KICK-OFF Spouwen-Mopertingen v Thes Sport
45′HALF-TIME Spouwen-Mopertingen 0–0 Thes Sport
46′SECOND HALF Spouwen-Mopertingen 0–0 Thes Sport
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Spouwen-Mopertingen win 36%)
54′We said Spouwen-Mopertingen at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–41–25
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 33–42–25
60′Thes Sport find the net on 59′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–69
60′We said Spouwen-Mopertingen at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–69
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Spouwen-Mopertingen 0–1 Thes Sport
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 45% at kick-off, 8% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Thes Sport win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 45%)
65′A goal for Thes Sport on 64′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
65′We said Spouwen-Mopertingen at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
65′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–94
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Spouwen-Mopertingen 0–2 Thes Sport
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Spouwen-Mopertingen win: 45% at kick-off, 1% now
66′Thes Sport score on 66′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Spouwen-Mopertingen 0–3 Thes Sport
77′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Thes Sport
78′Thes Sport are down to ten from 77′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Spouwen-Mopertingen 0–3 Thes Sport
FTSpouwen-Mopertingen 0–3 Thes Sport · Spouwen-Mopertingen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spouwen-Mopertingen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spouwen-Mopertingen 45%, draw 24%, Thes Sport 31%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Spouwen-Mopertingen v Thes SportBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Spouwen-Mopertingen win45%

Draw24%

Thes Sport win31%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundVV · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spouwen-Mopertingen

Thes Sport

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Spouwen-Mopertingen	8	+1	11
17	Thes Sport	8	+1	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spouwen-mopertingen winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

45% The market35%

Us45%

~~Market~~35%

We make Spouwen-Mopertingen a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spouwen-Mopertingen v Thes Sport~~1.72 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 10~~13 v 17

~~The market · Spouwen-Mopertingen win~~35% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spouwen-Mopertingen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spouwen-Mopertingen win	45%	35%	+10
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Thes Sport win	31%	39%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	58%	+2
Both teams to score	61%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
Spouwen-Mopertingen or draw	69%	61%	+8
Spouwen-Mopertingen clean sheet	25%	–	–
Thes Sport clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.1 5.9 4.4 2.1 1 7.3 10.9 7.3 3.4 2 6.6 8.9 6.1 2.9 3 3.8 5.1 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spouwen-Mopertingen down, Thes Sport across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,900 First Amateur Division matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spouwen-Mopertingen at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Thes Sport away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Spouwen-Mopertingen, 1.40 for Thes Sport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPO 3–0 THE · THE 1–1 SPO · THE 0–0 SPO · SPO 2–1 THE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept

SPOUWEN-MOPERTINGEN

WLWLDW1–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 4–3

THES SPORT

DLWDLD1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Houtvenne	8	+12	21
2	RWDM	9	+4	19
3	Rochefort	9	+8	17
4	Union Saint-Gilloise II	9	+7	17
5	Meux	9	+3	17
6	Mandel United	8	+7	16
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	8	+5	16
8	Albert Quévy-Mons	9	+10	15
9	Roeselare Daisel	8	+8	15
10	Merelbeke	8	+6	14
11	Tubize	9	0	14
12	Olympic Charleroi	8	0	12
13	Spouwen-Mopertingen	8	+1	11
14	Heist	8	+1	11
15	Dessel Sport	8	−1	11
16	Hoogstraten	8	+4	10
17	Thes Sport	8	+1	10
18	Standard Liège II	8	+1	10
19	Sporting Charleroi II	9	−1	10
20	Knokke	8	−3	10
21	Tienen	8	0	9
22	Cercle Brugge II	8	−6	8
23	Habay-la-Neuve	8	−5	6
24	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	8	−6	6
25	Onhaye	8	−10	6
26	Harelbeke	8	−17	4
27	Zelzate	8	−12	3
28	Flénu	9	−17	1