Sporting Charleroi II v Standard Liège II prediction · First Amateur Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sporting Charleroi IIDrawStandard Liège II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting Charleroi II 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Charleroi II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Charleroi II 45%, draw 28%, Standard Liège II 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Charleroi II v Standard Liège IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Charleroi II win45%

Draw28%

Standard Liège II win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundACFF · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Charleroi II

Standard Liège II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 18 Oct · First Amateur Division

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Standard Liège II	9	+6	13
9	Sporting Charleroi II	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting charleroi ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market34%

Us45%

~~Market~~34%

We make Sporting Charleroi II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Charleroi II v Standard Liège II~~1.40 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~9 v 7

~~The market · Sporting Charleroi II win~~34% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Charleroi II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Charleroi II win	45%	34%	+11
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Standard Liège II win	27%	39%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	43%	51%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	57%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−8
Sporting Charleroi II or draw	73%	61%	+12
Sporting Charleroi II clean sheet	36%	–	–
Standard Liège II clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.7 8.6 4.7 1 11.9 13.0 6.4 2.2 2 8.6 8.6 4.4 3 4.1 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Charleroi II down, Standard Liège II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,907 First Amateur Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Charleroi II at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Standard Liège II away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Sporting Charleroi II, 1.02 for Standard Liège II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–2 STA · STA 1–0 SPO · SPO 0–2 STA · STA 0–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept

SPORTING CHARLEROI II

LDDWDL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

STANDARD LIÈGE II

DLLWWW0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rochefort	10	+12	20
2	Meux	9	+8	19
3	RWDM	10	+3	19
4	Union Saint-Gilloise II	9	+7	17
5	Albert Quévy-Mons	10	+6	17
6	Tubize	9	0	14
7	Standard Liège II	9	+6	13
8	Olympic Charleroi	10	−9	12
9	Sporting Charleroi II	9	−1	10
10	Onhaye	8	−10	6
11	Habay-la-Neuve	8	−5	6
12	Flénu	9	−17	1