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Sporting Charleroi II v Olympic Charleroi

Sporting Charleroi II

1–1Full time

Olympic Charleroi

First Amateur Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi OLYMPIC CHARLEROI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Olympic Charleroi win~~46%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.883

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympic Charleroi win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Olympic Charleroi 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 30–23–47
5′4′ and it is 1–0: Sporting Charleroi II have scored. 1–0 · 54–22–24
22′4′ and it is 1–0: Sporting Charleroi II have scored. 1–0 · 56–23–20
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Sporting Charleroi II win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Olympic Charleroi win 20%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Olympic Charleroi win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sporting Charleroi II win 30%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Sporting Charleroi II win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Olympic Charleroi win 20%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Olympic Charleroi win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sporting Charleroi II win 30%)
26′4′ and it is 1–0: Sporting Charleroi II have scored. 1–0 · 57–24–19
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Olympic Charleroi win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Sporting Charleroi II win 30%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Sporting Charleroi II win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Olympic Charleroi win 20%)
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Sporting Charleroi II win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Olympic Charleroi win 19%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Sporting Charleroi II win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Olympic Charleroi win 19%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Olympic Charleroi win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Sporting Charleroi II win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Olympic Charleroi win 19%)
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi
48′⚽ GOAL · 4' Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi
48′⚽ GOAL · 32' Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi
53′⚽ GOAL · 4' Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi
53′⚽ GOAL · 32' Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi
FTFULL TIME Sporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi
FTSporting Charleroi II 1–1 Olympic Charleroi · Olympic Charleroi win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sporting Charleroi II win30%

Draw24%

Olympic Charleroi win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olympic charleroi winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

46% The market39%

Us46%

~~Market~~39%

We make Olympic Charleroi a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · olympic charleroi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Charleroi II win	30%	34%	−4
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Olympic Charleroi win	46%	39%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	60%	52%	+8
Both teams to score	61%	57%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	76%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	39%	32%	+6
Sporting Charleroi II or draw	54%	61%	−7
Sporting Charleroi II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Olympic Charleroi clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 7.3 6.7 4.0 1 5.6 10.7 8.9 5.3 2.4 2 4.2 7.0 6.1 3.6 3 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Charleroi II down, Olympic Charleroi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 First Amateur Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Charleroi II at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Olympic Charleroi away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Sporting Charleroi II, 1.78 for Olympic Charleroi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OLY 3–0 SPO · SPO 0–4 OLY · SPO 3–1 OLY · OLY 2–2 SPO

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

SPORTING CHARLEROI II

WDLDDW1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–2

OLYMPIC CHARLEROI

WLDLWD2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	7	+5	16
2	Houtvenne	6	+9	15
3	Rochefort	7	+7	14
4	Meux	7	+5	14
5	Tubize	7	+2	14
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
7	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
8	Roeselare Daisel	6	+6	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Dessel Sport	6	+2	11
11	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Knokke	6	+2	10
14	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
15	Sporting Charleroi II	7	+1	9
16	Tienen	6	+4	8
17	Olympic Charleroi	6	−2	8
18	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
19	Heist	6	−3	7
20	Hoogstraten	6	+1	6
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	6	−7	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1