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RWDM v Tubize

RWDM

2–1Full time

Tubize

First Amateur Division · SAT 10 OCT · Edmond Machtens Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

RWDM 2–1 Tubize TUBIZE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tubize win~~43%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tubize win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF RWDM v Tubize
2′Much as we predicted: Tubize was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
4′Much as we predicted: Tubize was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' RWDM 1–0 Tubize
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' RWDM 2–0 Tubize
45′HALF-TIME RWDM 2–0 Tubize
46′⚽ GOAL · 33' RWDM 2–0 Tubize
46′⚽ GOAL · 36' RWDM 2–0 Tubize
46′SECOND HALF RWDM 2–0 Tubize
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' RWDM 2–1 Tubize
51′⚽ GOAL · 33' RWDM 2–1 Tubize
51′⚽ GOAL · 36' RWDM 2–1 Tubize
51′⚽ GOAL · 48' RWDM 2–1 Tubize
FTFULL TIME RWDM 2–1 Tubize
FTRWDM 2–1 Tubize · Tubize win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

RWDM win30%

Draw27%

Tubize win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Edmond Machtens Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tubize winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

43% The market28%

Us43%

~~Market~~28%

We make Tubize a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tubize win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RWDM win	30%	45%	−14
Draw	27%	27%	0
Tubize win	43%	28%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	49%	52%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	32%	−5
RWDM or draw	57%	72%	−14
RWDM clean sheet	24%	–	–
Tubize clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.1 10.0 7.6 3.7 1 8.1 12.6 8.6 4.2 2 5.1 7.1 5.0 2.5 3 2.0 2.8 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RWDM down, Tubize across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 First Amateur Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

RWDM at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Tubize away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for RWDM, 1.45 for Tubize. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

RWDM

WWWWDL3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–4

TUBIZE

WLDWDW1–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	7	+5	16
2	Houtvenne	6	+9	15
3	Rochefort	7	+7	14
4	Meux	7	+5	14
5	Tubize	7	+2	14
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
7	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
8	Roeselare Daisel	6	+6	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Dessel Sport	6	+2	11
11	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Knokke	6	+2	10
14	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
15	Sporting Charleroi II	7	+1	9
16	Tienen	6	+4	8
17	Olympic Charleroi	6	−2	8
18	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
19	Heist	6	−3	7
20	Hoogstraten	6	+1	6
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	6	−7	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1