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Roeselare Daisel v Dessel Sport

Roeselare Daisel

2–0Full time

Dessel Sport

First Amateur Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Roeselare Daisel 2–0 Dessel Sport ROESELARE DAISEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Roeselare Daisel win~~56%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.392

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Roeselare Daisel win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Roeselare Daisel 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
1′KICK-OFF Roeselare Daisel v Dessel Sport
7′Little has changed for our model: Roeselare Daisel 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Roeselare Daisel 1–0 Dessel Sport
22′Roeselare Daisel find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
28′Roeselare Daisel find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 56% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Roeselare Daisel win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
45′HALF-TIME Roeselare Daisel 1–0 Dessel Sport
46′SECOND HALF Roeselare Daisel 1–0 Dessel Sport
49′⚽ GOAL · 11' Roeselare Daisel 1–0 Dessel Sport
54′⚽ GOAL · 11' Roeselare Daisel 1–0 Dessel Sport
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Roeselare Daisel 2–0 Dessel Sport
FTFULL TIME Roeselare Daisel 2–0 Dessel Sport
FTRoeselare Daisel 2–0 Dessel Sport · Roeselare Daisel win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Roeselare Daisel win56%

Draw21%

Dessel Sport win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roeselare daisel winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

56% The market49%

Us56%

~~Market~~49%

We make Roeselare Daisel a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · roeselare daisel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Roeselare Daisel win	56%	49%	+7
Draw	21%	25%	−3
Dessel Sport win	23%	26%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	60%	+7
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	79%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	45%	40%	+6
Roeselare Daisel or draw	77%	74%	+3
Roeselare Daisel clean sheet	27%	–	–
Dessel Sport clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.8 3.9 2.8 1 6.5 9.2 5.7 2.5 2 7.2 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 5.1 6.5 4.3 4 2.8 3.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Roeselare Daisel down, Dessel Sport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 First Amateur Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Roeselare Daisel at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dessel Sport away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Roeselare Daisel, 1.31 for Dessel Sport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DES 3–4 ROE · ROE 2–2 DES

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

ROESELARE DAISEL

DWWDLW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

DESSEL SPORT

WDLWDW4–3 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	7	+5	16
2	Houtvenne	6	+9	15
3	Rochefort	7	+7	14
4	Meux	7	+5	14
5	Tubize	7	+2	14
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
7	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
8	Roeselare Daisel	6	+6	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Dessel Sport	6	+2	11
11	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Knokke	6	+2	10
14	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
15	Sporting Charleroi II	7	+1	9
16	Tienen	6	+4	8
17	Olympic Charleroi	6	−2	8
18	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
19	Heist	6	−3	7
20	Hoogstraten	6	+1	6
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	6	−7	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1