Rochefort v Olympic Charleroi prediction · First Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Rochefort 4–0 Olympic Charleroi OLYMPIC CHARLEROI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olympic Charleroi win~~44%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.699

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.452

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympic Charleroi win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Olympic Charleroi was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 33–23–44
1′KICK-OFF Rochefort v Olympic Charleroi
13′A goal for Rochefort on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 57–21–22
13′We said Olympic Charleroi at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 57–21–22
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Rochefort 1–0 Olympic Charleroi
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Olympic Charleroi win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Rochefort win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Olympic Charleroi win 43%)
24′We said Olympic Charleroi at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–22–19
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 60–22–18
43′Rochefort score on 41′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 86–10–4
43′⚽ GOAL · 41' Rochefort 2–0 Olympic Charleroi
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Olympic Charleroi win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
44′Rochefort find the net on 43′. 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Rochefort 3–0 Olympic Charleroi
45′We said Olympic Charleroi at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 3–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Rochefort 3–0 Olympic Charleroi
46′SECOND HALF Rochefort 3–0 Olympic Charleroi
51′A goal for Rochefort on 51′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 99–0–0
51′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 99–0–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Rochefort 4–0 Olympic Charleroi
FTFULL TIME Rochefort 4–0 Olympic Charleroi
FTRochefort 4–0 Olympic Charleroi · Olympic Charleroi win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympic Charleroi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rochefort 33%, draw 23%, Olympic Charleroi 44%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Rochefort v Olympic CharleroiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rochefort win33%

Draw23%

Olympic Charleroi win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundACFF · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rochefort

Olympic Charleroi

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 17 Oct · First Amateur Division

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Rochefort	9	+8	17
8	Olympic Charleroi	9	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olympic charleroi winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market29%

Us44%

~~Market~~29%

We make Olympic Charleroi a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rochefort v Olympic Charleroi~~1.55 – 1.83

~~Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~3 v 8

~~The market · Olympic Charleroi win~~29% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Olympic Charleroi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rochefort win	33%	45%	−12
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Olympic Charleroi win	44%	29%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	65%	58%	+7
Both teams to score	65%	60%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	77%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	43%	38%	+5
Rochefort or draw	56%	71%	−15
Rochefort clean sheet	17%	–	–
Olympic Charleroi clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.1 6.0 5.7 3.5 1 5.1 10.0 8.5 5.2 2.4 2 4.2 7.3 6.5 4.0 3 2.2 3.8 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rochefort down, Olympic Charleroi across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,901 First Amateur Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rochefort at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Olympic Charleroi away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Rochefort, 1.83 for Olympic Charleroi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OLY 0–2 ROC · ROC 0–3 OLY · ROC 2–1 OLY · OLY 2–3 ROC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept

ROCHEFORT

LDDWWL1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–2

OLYMPIC CHARLEROI

DLWDDW1–1 · 1–3 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Meux	9	+8	19
2	RWDM	9	+4	19
3	Rochefort	9	+8	17
4	Union Saint-Gilloise II	9	+7	17
5	Albert Quévy-Mons	9	+5	14
6	Tubize	9	0	14
7	Standard Liège II	9	+6	13
8	Olympic Charleroi	9	−5	12
9	Sporting Charleroi II	9	−1	10
10	Onhaye	8	−10	6
11	Habay-la-Neuve	8	−5	6
12	Flénu	9	−17	1