Oud-Heverlee Leuven II v Heist prediction · First Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 0–0 Heist OUD-HEVERLEE LEUVEN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win~~52%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.990

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.873

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–19–28
1′KICK-OFF Oud-Heverlee Leuven II v Heist
6′Little has changed for our model: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–20–28
34′🟥 RED CARD · 33' Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
39′Oud-Heverlee Leuven II are down to ten from 33′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 45–27–28
41′Oud-Heverlee Leuven II are down to ten from 33′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 45–28–27
45′HALF-TIME Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 0–0 Heist
46′SECOND HALF Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 0–0 Heist
FTFULL TIME Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 0–0 Heist
FTOud-Heverlee Leuven II 0–0 Heist · Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win52%

Draw20%

Heist win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

Heist

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
20	Heist	6	−3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oud-heverlee leuven ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

52% The market42%

Us52%

~~Market~~42%

We make Oud-Heverlee Leuven II a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · oud-heverlee leuven ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win	52%	42%	+9
Draw	20%	24%	−4
Heist win	29%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	77%	68%	+9
Both teams to score	74%	70%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	91%	84%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	59%	50%	+9
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II or draw	71%	66%	+5
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Heist clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.1 2.7 2.6 1 3.7 7.0 5.8 3.4 2 4.5 7.6 6.6 3.9 3 3.5 5.9 5.1 3.0 4 2.1 3.6 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oud-Heverlee Leuven II down, Heist across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Heist away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.41 goals for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II, 1.77 for Heist. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OUD 1–1 HEI · HEI 1–1 OUD · HEI 2–0 OUD · OUD 1–2 HEI

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

OUD-HEVERLEE LEUVEN II

LWWWWL1–3 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–3

HEIST

LWDLLW0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Meux	8	+2	14
6	Tubize	8	+1	14
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
8	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
11	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
17	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
18	Tienen	6	+4	8
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
20	Heist	6	−3	7
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	7	−10	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1