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Meux v Rochefort

Meux

0–3Full time

Rochefort

First Amateur Division · SAT 10 OCT · Stade des Vert et Blanc

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Meux 0–3 Rochefort MEUX WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Meux win~~51%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.878

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.512

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Meux win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Meux 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–23–25
6′Little has changed for our model: Meux 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–25
22′Rochefort find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–53
28′Rochefort find the net on 22′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–25–54
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Meux win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Meux win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Meux win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Meux win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Meux win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Meux win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Rochefort win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Meux win 21%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Meux win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Rochefort win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Meux win 21%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Meux win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Rochefort win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Meux win 21%)
45′HALF-TIME Meux 0–1 Rochefort
45′⚽ GOAL · 22' Meux 0–1 Rochefort
46′SECOND HALF Meux 0–1 Rochefort
50′⚽ GOAL · 22' Meux 0–1 Rochefort
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Meux 0–2 Rochefort
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Meux 0–3 Rochefort
FTFULL TIME Meux 0–3 Rochefort
FTMeux 0–3 Rochefort · Meux win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Meux win51%

Draw24%

Rochefort win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Stade des Vert et Blanc

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · meux winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

51% The market32%

Us51%

~~Market~~32%

We make Meux a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · meux win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Meux win	51%	32%	+19
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Rochefort win	25%	42%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	57%	57%	0
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	36%	−2
Meux or draw	75%	58%	+17
Meux clean sheet	31%	–	–
Rochefort clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.9 5.7 3.7 1 8.8 11.2 6.3 2.5 2 8.1 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 4.9 5.6 3.3 4 2.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Meux down, Rochefort across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 First Amateur Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Meux at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rochefort away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Meux, 1.18 for Rochefort. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MEU 3–0 ROC · ROC 0–1 MEU · MEU 0–1 ROC · ROC 0–3 MEU

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

MEUX

WWWLWD2–1 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

ROCHEFORT

WWLDDW4–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	7	+5	16
2	Houtvenne	6	+9	15
3	Rochefort	7	+7	14
4	Meux	7	+5	14
5	Tubize	7	+2	14
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
7	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
8	Roeselare Daisel	6	+6	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Dessel Sport	6	+2	11
11	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Knokke	6	+2	10
14	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
15	Sporting Charleroi II	7	+1	9
16	Tienen	6	+4	8
17	Olympic Charleroi	6	−2	8
18	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
19	Heist	6	−3	7
20	Hoogstraten	6	+1	6
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	6	−7	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1