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Merelbeke v Mandel United

Merelbeke

0–2Full time

Mandel United

First Amateur Division · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Merelbeke 0–2 Mandel United MERELBEKE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Merelbeke win~~45%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.810

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.642

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Merelbeke win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Merelbeke v Mandel United
2′Much as we predicted: Merelbeke was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–27
7′Much as we predicted: Merelbeke was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Merelbeke 0–1 Mandel United
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Merelbeke 0–2 Mandel United
39′Mandel United find the net on 36′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Merelbeke win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Mandel United win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Merelbeke win 3%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Merelbeke win: 45% at kick-off, 42% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Merelbeke win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Mandel United win 26%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Merelbeke win: 45% at kick-off, 42% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Merelbeke win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Mandel United win 26%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Merelbeke win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Mandel United win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Merelbeke win 3%)
41′Mandel United find the net on 36′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′HALF-TIME Merelbeke 0–2 Mandel United
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Merelbeke win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Mandel United win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Merelbeke win 3%)
46′SECOND HALF Merelbeke 0–2 Mandel United
FTFULL TIME Merelbeke 0–2 Mandel United
FTMerelbeke 0–2 Mandel United · Merelbeke win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Merelbeke win45%

Draw28%

Mandel United win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Merelbeke

Mandel United

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · merelbeke winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make Merelbeke a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · merelbeke win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Merelbeke win	45%	39%	+6
Draw	28%	26%	+1
Mandel United win	27%	35%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	44%	55%	−12
Both teams to score	48%	60%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	23%	35%	−12
Merelbeke or draw	73%	65%	+8
Merelbeke clean sheet	37%	–	–
Mandel United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.9 8.5 4.7 1 11.9 12.7 6.3 2.3 2 8.6 8.4 4.4 3 4.1 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Merelbeke down, Mandel United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Merelbeke at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mandel United away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Merelbeke, 1.03 for Mandel United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

MERELBEKE

WWLWDD3–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

MANDEL UNITED

WDLWLW3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Meux	8	+2	14
6	Tubize	8	+1	14
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
8	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
11	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
17	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
18	Tienen	6	+4	8
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
20	Heist	6	−3	7
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	7	−10	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1