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Lyra-Lierse Berlaar v Houtvenne

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

0–1Full time

Houtvenne

First Amateur Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 0–1 Houtvenne HOUTVENNE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Houtvenne win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.561

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.476

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Houtvenne win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Houtvenne was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 37–23–39
2′KICK-OFF Lyra-Lierse Berlaar v Houtvenne
35′Houtvenne score on 34′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–66
35′We published Houtvenne at 39%. Our model now makes it 66%. 0–1 · 14–21–66
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 0–1 Houtvenne
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Houtvenne win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
36′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' Houtvenne
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Houtvenne win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 0–1 Houtvenne
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Houtvenne win: 39% at kick-off, 67% now
42′GOAL DISALLOWED · 42' Houtvenne
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Houtvenne win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 0–0 Houtvenne
46′SECOND HALF Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 0–0 Houtvenne
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Houtvenne win 32%)
55′We expected about 3.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–39–31
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Houtvenne win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
64′We said Houtvenne at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 26–47–27
70′We said Houtvenne at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
75′Houtvenne score on 74′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–81
75′We published Houtvenne at 39%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 3–17–81
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 0–1 Houtvenne
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Houtvenne win: 39% at kick-off, 81% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Houtvenne win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 17%)
80′We published Houtvenne at 39%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Houtvenne win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
84′We published Houtvenne at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
90′We published Houtvenne at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 0–1 Houtvenne
FTLyra-Lierse Berlaar 0–1 Houtvenne · Houtvenne win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Houtvenne just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 38%, draw 23%, Houtvenne 39%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Lyra-Lierse Berlaar v HoutvenneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win38%

Draw23%

Houtvenne win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundVV · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

Houtvenne

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 10 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
23	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	7	−5	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · houtvenne winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make Houtvenne a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lyra-Lierse Berlaar v Houtvenne~~1.71 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 18~~23 v 2

~~The market · Houtvenne win~~44% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Houtvenne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win	38%	31%	+7
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Houtvenne win	39%	44%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	67%	61%	+6
Both teams to score	67%	63%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	78%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	46%	41%	+5
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar or draw	61%	56%	+5
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar clean sheet	18%	–	–
Houtvenne clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 5.1 4.8 2.9 1 5.0 9.7 8.0 4.7 2.1 2 4.6 7.8 6.7 4.0 3 2.6 4.5 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lyra-Lierse Berlaar down, Houtvenne across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,887 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Houtvenne away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar, 1.76 for Houtvenne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LYR 4–3 HOU · HOU 0–3 LYR · HOU 0–0 LYR · LYR 0–1 HOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 Sept

LYRA-LIERSE BERLAAR

DDWLLL1–1 · 4–4 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2

HOUTVENNE

WWWWLW4–3 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Union Saint-Gilloise II	8	+5	14
6	Meux	8	+2	14
7	Tubize	8	+1	14
8	Mandel United	7	+5	13
9	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	7	+2	13
10	Albert Quévy-Mons	8	+8	12
11	Merelbeke	7	+3	11
12	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Tienen	7	+4	9
17	Thes Sport	7	+1	9
18	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	7	0	8
20	Heist	7	−3	8
21	Standard Liège II	7	0	7
22	Cercle Brugge II	7	−6	7
23	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	7	−5	6
24	Habay-la-Neuve	8	−5	6
25	Onhaye	8	−10	6
26	Harelbeke	7	−14	4
27	Zelzate	7	−10	3
28	Flénu	8	−16	1