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Knokke v Merelbeke
KnokkeMerelbekeFirst Amateur Division · SUN 18 OCT · Burgemeester Graaf Leopold Lippens Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Knokke win at 52%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Knokke 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
- 1′KICK-OFF Knokke v Merelbeke
- 24′Merelbeke score on 24′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 22–25–53
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Knokke 0–1 Merelbeke
- 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Knokke win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
- 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Merelbeke win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Knokke win 22%)
- 25′We said Knokke at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–25–53
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 20–26–54
- 31′Merelbeke find the net on 31′. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
- 31′We said Knokke at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–80
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Knokke 0–2 Merelbeke
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Knokke win: 52% at kick-off, 7% now
- 42′We said Knokke at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
- 45′HALF-TIME Knokke 0–2 Merelbeke
- 46′SECOND HALF Knokke 0–2 Merelbeke
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Knokke win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
- 75′A goal for Merelbeke on 74′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 75′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Knokke 0–3 Merelbeke
- FTFULL TIME Knokke 0–3 Merelbeke
- FTKnokke 0–3 Merelbeke · Knokke win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Knokke are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Knokke 52%, draw 25%, Merelbeke 23%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Knokke win52%Merelbeke win23%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00
RoundVV · matchday 8
VenueBurgemeester Graaf Leopold Lippens Park
Match timeline
All events
KnokkeMINMerelbekeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Knokke
Merelbeke
Last match: 10 Oct · First Amateur Division
Last match: 11 Oct · First Amateur Division
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Merelbeke | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 17 | Knokke | 7 | 0 | 10 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Knokke a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knokke win | 52% | 46% | +6 |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 0 |
| Merelbeke win | 23% | 29% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 41% | −10 |
| Knokke or draw | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Knokke clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Merelbeke clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 Sept
KNOKKE
MERELBEKE
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houtvenne | 8 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 |  RWDM | 9 | +4 | 19 |
| 3 |  Rochefort | 8 | +10 | 17 |
| 4 |  Union Saint-Gilloise II | 9 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Meux | 9 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Mandel United | 8 | +7 | 16 |
| 7 |  Roeselare Daisel | 8 | +8 | 15 |
| 8 |  Tubize | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 |  Oud-Heverlee Leuven II | 7 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 |  Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | +8 | 12 |
| 11 |  Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Merelbeke | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 13 |  Spouwen-Mopertingen | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 14 |  Dessel Sport | 8 | −1 | 11 |
| 15 |  Hoogstraten | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 16 |  Thes Sport | 8 | +1 | 10 |
| 17 | Knokke | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 18 |  Sporting Charleroi II | 9 | −1 | 10 |
| 19 |  Tienen | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 20 |  Heist | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cercle Brugge II | 8 | −6 | 8 |
| 22 |  Standard Liège II | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 23 |  Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | −5 | 6 |
| 24 |  Lyra-Lierse Berlaar | 8 | −6 | 6 |
| 25 |  Onhaye | 8 | −10 | 6 |
| 26 |  Harelbeke | 7 | −14 | 4 |
| 27 |  Zelzate | 8 | −12 | 3 |
| 28 |  Flénu | 8 | −16 | 1 |
Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.