Houtvenne v Merelbeke

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Houtvenne win at 46%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Houtvenne v Merelbeke
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Houtvenne was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
4. 17′Merelbeke score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–57
5. 17′We said Houtvenne at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–23–57
6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Houtvenne 0–1 Merelbeke
7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Houtvenne win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
8. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Merelbeke win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Houtvenne win 43%)
9. 20′We said Houtvenne at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–57
10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 17–24–59
11. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Houtvenne win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
12. 38′We said Houtvenne at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
13. 45′HALF-TIME Houtvenne 0–1 Merelbeke
14. 46′SECOND HALF Houtvenne 0–1 Merelbeke
15. 54′We said Houtvenne at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
16. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Houtvenne win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
17. 69′We said Houtvenne at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
18. 87′Houtvenne find the net on 87′. 1–1. 1–1 · 7–87–6
19. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Houtvenne 1–1 Merelbeke
20. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Merelbeke win 92%)
21. FTFULL TIME Houtvenne 1–1 Merelbeke
22. FTHoutvenne 1–1 Merelbeke · Houtvenne win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.