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Houtvenne v Knokke

Houtvenne

2–0Full time

Knokke

First Amateur Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Houtvenne 2–0 Knokke KNOKKE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Knokke win~~41%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.648

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.450

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Knokke win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Knokke 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 35–24–41
9′Houtvenne find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–21–20
23′Houtvenne find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–22–17
31′Houtvenne find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–15
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Knokke win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Houtvenne win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Knokke win 15%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Knokke win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Houtvenne win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Knokke win 15%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Knokke win: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Houtvenne win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Knokke win 15%)
45′HALF-TIME Houtvenne 1–0 Knokke
46′SECOND HALF Houtvenne 1–0 Knokke
52′⚽ GOAL · 7' Houtvenne 1–0 Knokke
57′⚽ GOAL · 7' Houtvenne 2–0 Knokke
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Houtvenne 2–0 Knokke
FTFULL TIME Houtvenne 2–0 Knokke
FTHoutvenne 2–0 Knokke · Knokke win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Houtvenne win35%

Draw24%

Knokke win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · knokke winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

41% The market31%

Us41%

~~Market~~31%

We make Knokke a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · knokke win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Houtvenne win	35%	45%	−10
Draw	24%	24%	0
Knokke win	41%	31%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	61%	65%	−3
Both teams to score	63%	67%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	46%	−6
Houtvenne or draw	59%	69%	−10
Houtvenne clean sheet	20%	–	–
Knokke clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 6.6 5.8 3.2 1 6.0 10.8 8.5 4.7 2.0 2 4.8 7.8 6.4 3.5 3 2.5 4.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Houtvenne down, Knokke across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,873 First Amateur Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Houtvenne at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Knokke away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Houtvenne, 1.66 for Knokke. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HOU 1–2 KNO · KNO 0–0 HOU

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

HOUTVENNE

WWWWWL3–1 · 4–3 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

KNOKKE

WLLWDW3–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	7	+5	16
2	Houtvenne	6	+9	15
3	Rochefort	7	+7	14
4	Meux	7	+5	14
5	Tubize	7	+2	14
6	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
7	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
8	Roeselare Daisel	6	+6	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Dessel Sport	6	+2	11
11	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Knokke	6	+2	10
14	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
15	Sporting Charleroi II	7	+1	9
16	Tienen	6	+4	8
17	Olympic Charleroi	6	−2	8
18	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
19	Heist	6	−3	7
20	Hoogstraten	6	+1	6
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	6	−7	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1