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Hoogstraten v Roeselare Daisel

Hoogstraten

1–1Full time

Roeselare Daisel

First Amateur Division · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Hoogstraten 1–1 Roeselare Daisel ROESELARE DAISEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Roeselare Daisel win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.827

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Roeselare Daisel win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Roeselare Daisel 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Hoogstraten v Roeselare Daisel
30′A goal for Hoogstraten on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–22–14
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Hoogstraten 1–0 Roeselare Daisel
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Roeselare Daisel win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Hoogstraten win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Roeselare Daisel win 14%)
31′We said Roeselare Daisel at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 64–22–14
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Roeselare Daisel win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′HALF-TIME Hoogstraten 1–0 Roeselare Daisel
46′SECOND HALF Hoogstraten 1–0 Roeselare Daisel
49′We said Roeselare Daisel at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
67′We said Roeselare Daisel at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Roeselare Daisel win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
85′Roeselare Daisel score on 85′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 7–85–8
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Hoogstraten 1–1 Roeselare Daisel
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Roeselare Daisel win: 41% at kick-off, 8% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Hoogstraten win 7%)
FTFULL TIME Hoogstraten 1–1 Roeselare Daisel
FTHoogstraten 1–1 Roeselare Daisel · Roeselare Daisel win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roeselare Daisel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hoogstraten 34%, draw 26%, Roeselare Daisel 41%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Hoogstraten v Roeselare DaiselBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hoogstraten win34%

Draw26%

Roeselare Daisel win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundVV · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hoogstraten

Roeselare Daisel

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roeselare daisel winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Roeselare Daisel a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hoogstraten v Roeselare Daisel~~1.35 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 14~~15 v 4

~~The market · Roeselare Daisel win~~45% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Roeselare Daisel win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hoogstraten win	34%	29%	+5
Draw	26%	26%	0
Roeselare Daisel win	41%	45%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Hoogstraten or draw	59%	55%	+4
Hoogstraten clean sheet	23%	–	–
Roeselare Daisel clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 8.2 6.5 3.3 1 7.3 12.0 8.5 4.3 2 5.3 7.7 5.7 2.9 3 2.4 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hoogstraten down, Roeselare Daisel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,887 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hoogstraten at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Roeselare Daisel away: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Hoogstraten, 1.51 for Roeselare Daisel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HOO 1–1 ROE · ROE 1–1 HOO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 Sept

HOOGSTRATEN

DDLDWW1–1 · 4–4 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 4–1

ROESELARE DAISEL

WWDLWW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Union Saint-Gilloise II	8	+5	14
6	Meux	8	+2	14
7	Tubize	8	+1	14
8	Mandel United	7	+5	13
9	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	7	+2	13
10	Albert Quévy-Mons	8	+8	12
11	Merelbeke	7	+3	11
12	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Tienen	7	+4	9
17	Thes Sport	7	+1	9
18	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	7	0	8
20	Heist	7	−3	8
21	Standard Liège II	7	0	7
22	Cercle Brugge II	7	−6	7
23	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	7	−5	6
24	Habay-la-Neuve	8	−5	6
25	Onhaye	8	−10	6
26	Harelbeke	7	−14	4
27	Zelzate	7	−10	3
28	Flénu	8	−16	1