Heist v Tienen

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tienen win at 39%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF Heist v Tienen
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Tienen was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
4. 23′Heist find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–21–15
5. 23′We said Tienen at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 64–21–15
6. 23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Heist 1–0 Tienen
7. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Tienen win: 39% at kick-off, 15% now
8. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Heist win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Tienen win 37%)
9. 26′We said Tienen at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 65–22–14
11. 39′A goal for Heist on 39′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–9–3
12. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Heist 2–0 Tienen
13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Tienen win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
14. 40′We said Tienen at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
15. 45′HALF-TIME Heist 2–0 Tienen
16. 46′SECOND HALF Heist 2–0 Tienen
17. 81′Heist score on 81′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
18. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Heist 3–0 Tienen
19. 82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
20. 89′Heist find the net on 88′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
21. 89′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
22. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Heist 4–0 Tienen
23. FTFULL TIME Heist 4–0 Tienen
24. FTHeist 4–0 Tienen · Tienen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.