Harelbeke v Thes Sport prediction · First Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Harelbeke 1–0 Thes Sport THES SPORT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Thes Sport win~~56%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.978

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.955

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Thes Sport win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Thes Sport was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 22–22–57
2′Much as we predicted: Thes Sport was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 22–22–57
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Thes Sport win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Thes Sport win: 56% at kick-off, 47% now
46′SECOND HALF Harelbeke 0–0 Thes Sport
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Harelbeke 1–0 Thes Sport
FTFULL TIME Harelbeke 1–0 Thes Sport
FTHarelbeke 1–0 Thes Sport · Thes Sport win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Harelbeke win22%

Draw22%

Thes Sport win56%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueForestierstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Harelbeke

Thes Sport

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thes sport winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

56% The market54%

Us56%

~~Market~~54%

We make Thes Sport a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · thes sport win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Harelbeke win	22%	22%	−1
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Thes Sport win	56%	54%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	39%	0
Harelbeke or draw	44%	46%	−2
Harelbeke clean sheet	14%	–	–
Thes Sport clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.9 8.0 8.3 5.6 2.9 1 4.6 10.0 9.4 6.3 3.3 2 2.9 5.6 5.5 3.7 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Harelbeke down, Thes Sport across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Harelbeke at home: 1.00 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 3). Thes Sport away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Harelbeke, 2.02 for Thes Sport. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

HARELBEKE

LLLLDL0–3 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 0–4

THES SPORT

DWDLWD3–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Meux	8	+2	14
6	Tubize	8	+1	14
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
8	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
11	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
17	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
18	Tienen	6	+4	8
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
20	Heist	6	−3	7
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	7	−10	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1