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Harelbeke v Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

Harelbeke

14:00Upcoming

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

First Amateur Division · SUN 25 OCT · Forestierstadion

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HarelbekeDrawLyra-Lierse Berlaar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Harelbeke 30%, draw 23%, Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 47%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Harelbeke v Lyra-Lierse BerlaarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Harelbeke win30%

Draw23%

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win47%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundVV · matchday 9

VenueForestierstadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Harelbeke

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 17 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
24	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	8	−6	6
26	Harelbeke	8	−17	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lyra-lierse berlaar winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 25 Oct 04:00 · locked at kick-off

47% The market41%

Us47%

~~Market~~41%

We make Lyra-Lierse Berlaar a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Harelbeke v Lyra-Lierse Berlaar~~1.51 – 1.94

~~Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~26 v 24

~~The market · Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win~~41% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Harelbeke win	30%	34%	−4
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win	47%	41%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	66%	60%	+6
Both teams to score	66%	62%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	79%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	45%	39%	+6
Harelbeke or draw	53%	59%	−6
Harelbeke clean sheet	15%	–	–
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 6.0 6.0 3.9 1 4.6 9.6 8.7 5.6 2.8 2 3.7 6.9 6.5 4.2 2.1 3 3.5 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Harelbeke down, Lyra-Lierse Berlaar across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,907 First Amateur Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 123 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Harelbeke at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 4). Lyra-Lierse Berlaar away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Harelbeke, 1.94 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 12 Sept

HARELBEKE

LLDLWL0–4 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 1–4

LYRA-LIERSE BERLAAR

DWLLLL4–4 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Houtvenne	9	+12	22
2	Rochefort	10	+12	20
3	RWDM	10	+3	19
4	Albert Quévy-Mons	10	+11	18
5	Roeselare Daisel	9	+9	18
6	Union Saint-Gilloise II	9	+7	17
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	9	+5	17
8	Meux	9	+3	17
9	Mandel United	8	+7	16
10	Merelbeke	9	+6	15
11	Heist	9	+5	14
12	Tubize	9	0	14
13	Thes Sport	9	+4	13
14	Dessel Sport	9	−1	12
15	Olympic Charleroi	9	−4	12
16	Spouwen-Mopertingen	9	−2	11
17	Hoogstraten	8	+4	10
18	Standard Liège II	8	+1	10
19	Sporting Charleroi II	9	−1	10
20	Knokke	9	−4	10
21	Tienen	8	0	9
22	Cercle Brugge II	8	−6	8
23	Habay-la-Neuve	8	−5	6
24	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	8	−6	6
25	Onhaye	8	−10	6
26	Harelbeke	8	−17	4
27	Zelzate	9	−16	3
28	Flénu	9	−17	1