Habay-la-Neuve v Meux prediction · First Amateur Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Habay-la-NeuveDrawMeux

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Meux 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Meux are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Habay-la-Neuve 32%, draw 27%, Meux 41%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Habay-la-Neuve v MeuxBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Habay-la-Neuve win32%

Draw27%

Meux win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundACFF · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Habay-la-Neuve

Meux

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · meux winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Meux a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Habay-la-Neuve v Meux~~1.25 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 19~~11 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Habay-la-Neuve win	32%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Meux win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Habay-la-Neuve or draw	59%	–	–
Habay-la-Neuve clean sheet	24%	–	–
Meux clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.6 9.4 7.0 3.4 1 8.1 12.5 8.6 4.2 2 5.3 7.4 5.3 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Habay-la-Neuve down, Meux across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,901 First Amateur Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Habay-la-Neuve at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Meux away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Habay-la-Neuve, 1.44 for Meux. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HAB 1–2 MEU · MEU 3–1 HAB · HAB 1–1 MEU · MEU 5–2 HAB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 5 Sept

HABAY-LA-NEUVE

LDWDLD0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

MEUX

WLWDLW4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Meux	9	+8	19
2	RWDM	9	+4	19
3	Rochefort	9	+8	17
4	Union Saint-Gilloise II	9	+7	17
5	Albert Quévy-Mons	9	+5	14
6	Tubize	9	0	14
7	Standard Liège II	9	+6	13
8	Olympic Charleroi	9	−5	12
9	Sporting Charleroi II	9	−1	10
10	Onhaye	8	−10	6
11	Habay-la-Neuve	8	−5	6
12	Flénu	9	−17	1