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Flénu v Union Saint-Gilloise II

Flénu

2–5Full time

Union Saint-Gilloise II

First Amateur Division · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Flénu 2–5 Union Saint-Gilloise II UNION SAINT-GILLOISE II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Saint-Gilloise II win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.429

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Saint-Gilloise II win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Union Saint-Gilloise II was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 30–22–48
6′Union Saint-Gilloise II find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–16–70
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
22′Union Saint-Gilloise II find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–71
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 48% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Flénu 0–2 Union Saint-Gilloise II
38′A goal for Union Saint-Gilloise II on 32′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 91% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 91% now
40′A goal for Union Saint-Gilloise II on 32′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 91% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Flénu 0–3 Union Saint-Gilloise II
45′HALF-TIME Flénu 0–3 Union Saint-Gilloise II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Union Saint-Gilloise II win: 48% at kick-off, 91% now
46′SECOND HALF Flénu 0–3 Union Saint-Gilloise II
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Flénu 1–3 Union Saint-Gilloise II
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Flénu 2–3 Union Saint-Gilloise II
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Flénu 2–4 Union Saint-Gilloise II
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Flénu 2–5 Union Saint-Gilloise II
FTFULL TIME Flénu 2–5 Union Saint-Gilloise II
FTFlénu 2–5 Union Saint-Gilloise II · Union Saint-Gilloise II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Flénu win30%

Draw22%

Union Saint-Gilloise II win48%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Flénu

Union Saint-Gilloise II

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
27	Flénu	7	−13	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union saint-gilloise ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Union Saint-Gilloise II a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · union saint-gilloise ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flénu win	30%	28%	+2
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Union Saint-Gilloise II win	48%	47%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	58%	+9
Both teams to score	67%	60%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	86%	78%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	46%	38%	+8
Flénu or draw	52%	53%	−1
Flénu clean sheet	14%	–	–
Union Saint-Gilloise II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.7 5.7 5.9 3.9 1 4.3 9.4 8.7 5.7 2.9 2 3.6 6.7 6.5 4.3 2.2 3 3.5 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flénu down, Union Saint-Gilloise II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Flénu at home: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 3). Union Saint-Gilloise II away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Flénu, 1.98 for Union Saint-Gilloise II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

FLÉNU

LDLLLL1–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 0–4

UNION SAINT-GILLOISE II

LWDWDW1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Meux	8	+2	14
6	Tubize	8	+1	14
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
8	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
11	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
17	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
18	Tienen	6	+4	8
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
20	Heist	6	−3	7
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	7	−10	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1