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Model 1.2

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Dessel Sport v Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

Dessel Sport
2–2Full time
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

First Amateur Division · SAT 24 OCT · Armand Melis Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15
Dessel Sport 2–2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II DESSEL SPORT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Dessel Sport win48%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.998
The market’s Brier score0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dessel Sport win at 48%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Dessel Sport 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–19–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dessel Sport v Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
  4. 14′A goal for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–19–53
  5. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Dessel Sport 0–1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
  6. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Dessel Sport win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  7. 14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Dessel Sport win 47%)
  8. 15′We said Dessel Sport at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–19–53
  9. 27′We said Dessel Sport at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–21–55
  10. 43′We said Dessel Sport at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Dessel Sport 0–1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
  12. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Dessel Sport win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Dessel Sport 0–1 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
  14. 56′We said Dessel Sport at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  15. 64′Oud-Heverlee Leuven II score on 63′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–89
  16. 64′We said Dessel Sport at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–89
  17. 64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Dessel Sport 0–2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
  18. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Dessel Sport win: 48% at kick-off, 2% now
  19. 79′Dessel Sport find the net on 78′. 1–2. 1–2 · 3–18–79
  20. 79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Dessel Sport 1–2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
  21. 91′A goal for Dessel Sport on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 6–88–5
  22. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Dessel Sport 2–2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
  23. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win 92%)
  24. 92′We said Dessel Sport at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 2–2 · 5–90–4
  25. FTFULL TIME Dessel Sport 2–2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
  26. FTDessel Sport 2–2 Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · Dessel Sport win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dessel Sport are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dessel Sport 48%, draw 19%, Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 33%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on Dessel Sport v Oud-Heverlee Leuven IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dessel Sport win48%
Draw19%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:30

RoundVV · matchday 9

VenueArmand Melis Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dessel Sport

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 18 Oct · First Amateur Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Oud-Heverlee Leuven II8+516
15Dessel Sport8−111

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dessel sport winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
48% The market36%
Us48%
Market36%

We make Dessel Sport a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dessel Sport v Oud-Heverlee Leuven II2.55 – 2.11
Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 11 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 11 v 1615 v 7
The market · Dessel Sport win36% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 17:38
Our probability · Dessel Sport win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dessel Sport win48%36%+12
Draw19%24%−5
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win33%40%−7
Over 2.5 goals83%73%+10
Both teams to score80%72%+8
Over 1.5 goals94%86%+8
Over 3.5 goals67%54%+13
Dessel Sport or draw67%60%+7
Dessel Sport clean sheet13%––
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.6%
0123450 2.2 1 2.4 5.5 5.3 3.7 2 3.2 6.5 6.6 4.5 2.4 3 2.7 5.4 5.5 3.8 2.1 4 3.4 3.5 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dessel Sport down, Oud-Heverlee Leuven II across0–5 goals a side shown (92.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.56 of 8
Both scored6 of 8
Last meetingsOUD 3–0 DES · DES 4–1 OUD · DES 4–1 OUD · OUD 3–2 DES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Amateur Division this season · since 11 Sept

DESSEL SPORT

LWDWLL0–5 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 3–4

OUD-HEVERLEE LEUVEN II

WWWLDW4–3 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Houtvenne8+1221
2RWDM9+419
3Rochefort9+817
4Union Saint-Gilloise II9+717
5Meux9+317
6Mandel United8+716
7Oud-Heverlee Leuven II8+516
8Albert Quévy-Mons9+1015
9Roeselare Daisel8+815
10Merelbeke8+614
11Tubize9014
12Thes Sport9+413
13Olympic Charleroi8012
14Heist8+111
15Dessel Sport8−111
16Spouwen-Mopertingen9−211
17Hoogstraten8+410
18Standard Liège II8+110
19Sporting Charleroi II9−110
20Knokke8−310
21Tienen809
22Cercle Brugge II8−68
23Habay-la-Neuve8−56
24Lyra-Lierse Berlaar8−66
25Onhaye8−106
26Harelbeke8−174
27Zelzate8−123
28Flénu9−171

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.