Cercle Brugge II v Lyra-Lierse Berlaar prediction · First Amateur Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Cercle Brugge II 2–1 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar CERCLE BRUGGE II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cercle Brugge II win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.559

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.456

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cercle Brugge II win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cercle Brugge II 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–22–38
1′KICK-OFF Cercle Brugge II v Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
2′Little has changed for our model: Cercle Brugge II 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–22–38
45′HALF-TIME Cercle Brugge II 0–0 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
46′SECOND HALF Cercle Brugge II 0–0 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Cercle Brugge II 0–0 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Cercle Brugge II 0–1 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Cercle Brugge II 1–1 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Cercle Brugge II 2–1 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
FTFULL TIME Cercle Brugge II 2–1 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar
FTCercle Brugge II 2–1 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · Cercle Brugge II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Cercle Brugge II win40%

Draw23%

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Cercle Brugge II

Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cercle brugge ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Cercle Brugge II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cercle brugge ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cercle Brugge II win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win	38%	30%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	68%	63%	+5
Both teams to score	68%	64%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	80%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	47%	43%	+3
Cercle Brugge II or draw	62%	70%	−7
Cercle Brugge II clean sheet	18%	–	–
Lyra-Lierse Berlaar clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 4.9 4.5 2.6 1 5.0 9.5 7.8 4.5 2.0 2 4.7 8.0 6.8 4.0 3 2.8 4.7 4.1 2.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cercle Brugge II down, Lyra-Lierse Berlaar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,879 First Amateur Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Amateur Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 95 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cercle Brugge II at home: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lyra-Lierse Berlaar away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Cercle Brugge II, 1.74 for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CER 5–1 LYR · LYR 4–1 CER · CER 2–3 LYR · LYR 0–1 CER

Form · last six in First Amateur Division

CERCLE BRUGGE II

DLWLLL1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–3

LYRA-LIERSE BERLAAR

DDDWLL3–3 · 1–1 · 4–4 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	RWDM	8	+6	19
2	Houtvenne	7	+11	18
3	Rochefort	8	+10	17
4	Roeselare Daisel	7	+8	14
5	Meux	8	+2	14
6	Tubize	8	+1	14
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven II	6	+2	12
8	Albert Quévy-Mons	7	+8	11
9	Merelbeke	6	+5	11
10	Union Saint-Gilloise II	7	+2	11
11	Dessel Sport	7	0	11
12	Mandel United	6	+3	10
13	Sporting Charleroi II	8	+1	10
14	Knokke	7	0	10
15	Hoogstraten	7	+4	9
16	Thes Sport	6	+2	9
17	Olympic Charleroi	7	−2	9
18	Tienen	6	+4	8
19	Spouwen-Mopertingen	6	0	7
20	Heist	6	−3	7
21	Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	6	−4	6
22	Onhaye	7	−7	6
23	Habay-la-Neuve	7	−5	5
24	Standard Liège II	6	−3	4
25	Cercle Brugge II	6	−7	4
26	Zelzate	7	−10	3
27	Flénu	7	−13	1
28	Harelbeke	6	−15	1