Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Cup › Zulte Waregem v Seraing United

Back
Belgium flag

Zulte Waregem v Seraing United

Zulte Waregem
3–0Full time
Seraing United

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31
Zulte Waregem 3–0 Seraing United ZULTE WAREGEM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zulte Waregem win78%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.072
The market’s Brier score0.171

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zulte Waregem win at 78%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Zulte Waregem 78% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–8
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zulte Waregem v Seraing United
  4. 15′We said Zulte Waregem at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Zulte Waregem 1–0 Seraing United
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Zulte Waregem win: 78% at kick-off, 92% now
  7. 16′Zulte Waregem score on 16′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 91–6–2
  8. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Zulte Waregem
  9. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Seraing United
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 91–7–2
  11. 34′15′: M. Ake on the scoresheet for Zulte Waregem, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 90–8–2
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Zulte Waregem 1–0 Seraing United
  13. 46′HALF-TIME Zulte Waregem 1–0 Seraing United
  14. FTFULL TIME Zulte Waregem 3–0 Seraing United
  15. FTZulte Waregem 3–0 Seraing United · Zulte Waregem win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zulte Waregem are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zulte Waregem 78%, draw 14%, Seraing United 7%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Zulte Waregem v Seraing UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zulte Waregem win78%
Draw14%
Seraing United win7%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zulte Waregem

Seraing United

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

Last match: 11 Oct · Challenger Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zulte waregem winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
78% The market66%
Us78%
Market66%

We make Zulte Waregem a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zulte Waregem v Seraing United2.68 – 0.73
The market · Zulte Waregem win66% · ours 78%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 19:34
Our probability · Zulte Waregem win The market, margin stripped

Published at 79%, 78% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zulte Waregem win78%66%+12
Draw14%20%−6
Seraing United win7%14%−7
Over 2.5 goals66%61%+5
Both teams to score48%55%−7
Over 1.5 goals86%81%+5
Over 3.5 goals44%41%+3
Zulte Waregem or draw93%86%+7
Zulte Waregem clean sheet48%––
Seraing United clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%
0123450 3.5 2.2 1 8.7 6.7 2.4 2 11.9 8.7 3.2 3 10.6 7.7 2.8 4 7.1 5.2 5 3.8 2.8
under 2% 5% 12%+Zulte Waregem down, Seraing United across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.12
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsSER 0–0 ZUL · ZUL 5–1 SER · ZUL 2–1 SER · SER 0–5 ZUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 27 Sept

ZULTE WAREGEM

No matches in our record yet.

SERAING UNITED

W5–2