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Model 1.2

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Union St. Gilloise v Nijlen

Union St. Gilloise
3–0Full time
Nijlen

Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23
Union St. Gilloise 3–0 Nijlen UNION ST. GILLOISE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG8–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Union St. Gilloise win>99%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.000

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Union St. Gilloise win at 100%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Union St. Gilloise was 100% before kick-off and our model makes it over 99% now. 0–0 · 100–0–0
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Union St. Gilloise v Nijlen
  4. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Union St. Gilloise
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Nijlen
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Union St. Gilloise 0–0 Nijlen
  7. 55′We expected about 8.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 95–5–0
  8. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Union St. Gilloise win: 100% at kick-off, 90% now
  9. 66′We said Union St. Gilloise at 100%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 88%. 0–0 · 88–11–1
  10. 69′We said Union St. Gilloise at 100%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 84%. 0–0 · 84–15–1
  11. 70′Union St. Gilloise find the net on 69′. 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
  12. 70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Nijlen
  13. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Union St. Gilloise win: 100% at kick-off, 99% now
  14. 80′A goal for Union St. Gilloise on 80′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  15. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Nijlen
  16. 84′Union St. Gilloise score on 83′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Union St. Gilloise 3–0 Nijlen
  18. FTFULL TIME Union St. Gilloise 3–0 Nijlen
  19. FTUnion St. Gilloise 3–0 Nijlen · Union St. Gilloise win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 8–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union St. Gilloise are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union St. Gilloise >99%, draw <1%, Nijlen <1%. Over 2.5 goals 99%, both teams to score 21%.

The AI’s read on Union St. Gilloise v NijlenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Union St. Gilloise win>99%
Draw<1%
Nijlen win<1%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union St. Gilloise

Nijlen

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 11 Oct · Second Amateur Division - VFV B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union st. gilloise winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
>99% The market–
Us>99%

We make Union St. Gilloise a 100% chance to win. The model expects 8.4–0.2, and 8–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Union St. Gilloise v Nijlen8.39 – 0.24

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Union St. Gilloise win>99%––
Draw<1%––
Nijlen win<1%––
Over 2.5 goals99%––
Both teams to score21%––
Over 1.5 goals>99%––
Over 3.5 goals97%––
Union St. Gilloise or draw>99%––
Union St. Gilloise clean sheet79%––
Nijlen clean sheet<1%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 8–0 at 10.9%
0123450 1 2 3 4 3.7 5 6.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Union St. Gilloise down, Nijlen across0–5 goals a side shown (15.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept

UNION ST. GILLOISE

No matches in our record yet.

NIJLEN

W3–1