Standard Liege v Dender
Standard LiegeDenderCup · FRI 16 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Standard Liege win at 50%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Standard Liege 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Standard Liege v Dender
- 31′A goal for Standard Liege on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
- 31′We said Standard Liege at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Standard Liege 1–0 Dender
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Standard Liege win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
- 32′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
- 45′HALF-TIME Standard Liege 1–0 Dender
- 48′SECOND HALF Standard Liege 1–0 Dender
- 51′We said Standard Liege at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Standard Liege win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
- 59′A. Abid scores for Standard Liege on 29′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–5
- 68′We said Standard Liege at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 78′We said Standard Liege at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Standard Liege win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
- 85′We said Standard Liege at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 88′Standard Liege score on 88′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Standard Liege 2–0 Dender
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Standard Liege win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 89′We said Standard Liege at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Dender
- FTFULL TIME Standard Liege 2–0 Dender
- FTStandard Liege 2–0 Dender · Standard Liege win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassStandard Liege are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Standard Liege 50%, draw 27%, Dender 24%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Standard Liege win50%Dender win24%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 20:00
RoundRound of 32
Match timeline
All events
Standard LiegeMINDenderEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Standard Liege
Dender
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Standard Liege
Dender
Last match: 11 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
Last match: 9 Oct · Challenger Pro League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Standard Liege
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Epolo
3 G. Mortensen
25 I. Hautekiet
20 I. Karamoko
13 M. Fossey
22 A. Trouillet
84 R. Touzghar
94 C. Nielsen
11 A. Abid
15 S. Drammeh
77 B. Nsimba
Coach · Vincent Euvrard
Substitutes
21 · L. Pirard
4 · D. Lavalee
18 · H. Lawrence
80 · R. Fosso
23 · M. Ilaimaharitra
7 · T. Mohr
17 · B. Nguene
10 · D. Eckert
9 · A. Zeqiri
Dender
Formation not confirmed
1 L. Fortin
6 B. De Kerf
14 G. Vandeplas
15 K. Koton
18 N. Rodes
21 K. Cools
22 I. Breugelmans
23 M. Experience
24 M. Viltard
45 A. Daali
53 A. Nhaili
Coach · Jonathan Silva
Substitutes
60 · O. Balde
17 · P. Kestens
13 · M. Nkurunziza
11 · K. Diliwidi
9 · D. Toshevski
8 · O. Szulc
2 · C. Jullien
16 · J. Devriendt
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Standard Liege
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Epolo
3 G. Mortensen
25 I. Hautekiet
20 I. Karamoko
13 M. Fossey
22 A. Trouillet
84 R. Touzghar
94 C. Nielsen
11 A. Abid
15 S. Drammeh
77 B. Nsimba
Coach · Vincent Euvrard
Substitutes
21 · L. Pirard
4 · D. Lavalee
18 · H. Lawrence
80 · R. Fosso
23 · M. Ilaimaharitra
7 · T. Mohr
17 · B. Nguene
10 · D. Eckert
9 · A. Zeqiri
Dender
Formation not confirmed
1 L. Fortin
6 B. De Kerf
14 G. Vandeplas
15 K. Koton
18 N. Rodes
21 K. Cools
22 I. Breugelmans
23 M. Experience
24 M. Viltard
45 A. Daali
53 A. Nhaili
Coach · Jonathan Silva
Substitutes
60 · O. Balde
17 · P. Kestens
13 · M. Nkurunziza
11 · K. Diliwidi
9 · D. Toshevski
8 · O. Szulc
2 · C. Jullien
16 · J. Devriendt
We make Standard Liege a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 20 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege win | 50% | 70% | −20 |
| Draw | 27% | 19% | +8 |
| Dender win | 24% | 11% | +13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 57% | −10 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 78% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 36% | −11 |
| Standard Liege or draw | 76% | 89% | −13 |
| Standard Liege clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
| Dender clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept
STANDARD LIEGE
No matches in our record yet.
DENDER