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St. Truiden v Lommel United

St. Truiden
4–1Full time
Lommel United

Cup · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01
St. Truiden 4–1 Lommel United ST. TRUIDEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said St. Truiden win65%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.182
The market’s Brier score0.186

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said St. Truiden win at 65%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: St. Truiden was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF St. Truiden v Lommel United
  4. 4′Lommel United score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 41–24–36
  5. 4′We said St. Truiden at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–1 · 41–24–36
  6. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' St. Truiden 0–1 Lommel United
  7. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' St. Truiden win: 65% at kick-off, 41% now
  8. 7′We said St. Truiden at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–24–36
  9. 16′St. Truiden find the net on 15′. 1–1. 1–1 · 61–23–16
  10. 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' St. Truiden 1–1 Lommel United
  11. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' St. Truiden win: 65% at kick-off, 61% now
  12. 22′A goal for St. Truiden on 22′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 84–11–4
  13. 22′We published St. Truiden at 65%. Our model now makes it 84%. 2–1 · 84–11–4
  14. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' St. Truiden 2–1 Lommel United
  15. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' St. Truiden win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
  16. 23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 22' St. Truiden
  17. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' St. Truiden win: 65% at kick-off, 59% now
  18. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Lommel United
  19. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' St. Truiden win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
  20. 39′A goal for St. Truiden on 39′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 84–12–4
  21. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' St. Truiden 2–1 Lommel United
  22. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' St. Truiden win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
  23. 45′HALF-TIME St. Truiden 2–1 Lommel United
  24. 46′SECOND HALF St. Truiden 2–1 Lommel United
  25. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Lommel United
  26. 51′We published St. Truiden at 65%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–3
  27. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' St. Truiden win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
  28. 62′St. Truiden score on 62′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  29. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' St. Truiden 3–1 Lommel United
  30. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' St. Truiden win: 65% at kick-off, 98% now
  31. 63′We published St. Truiden at 65%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  32. 64′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  33. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lommel United · On: I. Dada-Mascoll · Off: J. Pelupessy
  34. 71′St. Truiden find the net on 71′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lommel United · On: T. Gooijer · Off: S. Adewoye
  36. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lommel United · On: E. Odede · Off: S. Nypan
  37. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' St. Truiden 4–1 Lommel United
  38. 72′We published St. Truiden at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 72′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  40. FTFULL TIME St. Truiden 4–1 Lommel United
  41. FTSt. Truiden 4–1 Lommel United · St. Truiden win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St. Truiden are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Truiden 65%, draw 20%, Lommel United 15%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on St. Truiden v Lommel UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

St. Truiden win65%
Draw20%
Lommel United win15%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Truiden

Lommel United

3Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 9 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st. truiden winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off
65% The market65%
Us65%
Market65%

We make St. Truiden a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · St. Truiden v Lommel United2.18 – 0.94
The market · St. Truiden win65% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 17:08
Our probability · St. Truiden win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
St. Truiden win65%65%0
Draw20%20%0
Lommel United win15%15%0
Over 2.5 goals60%61%−1
Both teams to score55%56%−1
Over 1.5 goals82%81%+1
Over 3.5 goals38%41%−3
St. Truiden or draw85%85%0
St. Truiden clean sheet39%––
Lommel United clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.4%
0123450 4.7 3.9 1 9.3 9.3 4.3 2 10.4 9.9 4.7 3 7.6 7.2 3.4 4 4.1 3.9 5
under 2% 5% 12%+St. Truiden down, Lommel United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsSTT 1–1 LOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept

ST. TRUIDEN

No matches in our record yet.

LOMMEL UNITED

W2–0